Who Gets to Debate Before New Hampshire?

There will be three debates, 1 Democratic and 2 Republican, in the 5 days between Iowa and New Hampshire. Given the brevity of that time period, these debates could be crucial, especially for those campaigns that need an extra shot of mo' to overcome a disappointment in Iowa. However, all three debates will use certain inclusion criteria to determine their participants.

The ABC/WMUR/Facebook (yes, Facebook is a sponsor) debates on Jan. 5th require that candidates meet at least one of the following criteria:

"-- Place in the top four in the Iowa caucuses, which will be held on Thursday.

-- Poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four reputable random sample New Hampshire telephone surveys sponsored by an established news organization and conducted and released by 9 a.m. on Friday, Jan. 4.

-- Poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four reputable random sample national telephone surveys sponsored by an established news organization and conducted and released on or before 9 a.m. on Jan. 4." (Per the Union Leader)

We can assume, then that Clinton, Obama, and Edwards will almost certainly be in the Democratic debate. Richardson is at or above 5% in the two most recent New Hampshire polls, so he'll probably be included, too. Neither Biden, Dodd, nor Kucinich are likely to poll that well before Jan. 4th, so one of them needs a 4th place finish in Iowa to join the debate. Obviously, Biden is the only one of those three who appears to have a chance at that. So, it looks like we'll see Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Richardson, and maybe, Biden (assuming they're all in the race at that point). Solid performances by Biden have been so prevalent in the previous debates, that it's hard to imagine what a debate would be like without him.

Exhibit A:

Among the Republicans, we can probably count on seeing Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Paul, Romney, and Thompson. Hunter and Keyes are gonna be locked out.

Fox News, true to its character, has no published no inclusion criteria other than being named Rudolph William Louis Giuliani, Michael Dale Huckabee, John Sidney McCain III, Willard Mitt Romney or Fred Dalton Thompson. Obviously, that list excludes Duncan Lee Hunter, Alan Keyes, and most notably, Ronald Ernest Paul, even though Paul consistently out-polls Thompson in New Hampshire. As the Union Leader story, above, relates, the New Hampshire Republican Party Chair is pi-issed.