Friday, May 30, 2008


This is great for so many reasons. If you listen closely, the voice-over calls her "Gay Barnes" at one point.

Newest Standings, Call for PR, SD, MT picks

1) JJ 683.5
2) Joel 674
3) Joaquin 647
4) Devin 615.5
5) Geoff 613
6) Matt 395.5

I've been trying to think of a way to do picks on the RBC meeting tomorrow, but I don't want to get too complicated. Looks like we're all about to owe JJ 20 bucks.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Quick Senate Poll Rundown

In case you haven't seen these numbers, take a look. Something remarkable is happening.

AK - Begich (D) 48%, Stevens (R) 43% [Research 2000 5/12-14]; Begich 47%, Stevens 45% [Rasmussen 5/14]

CO - Udall (D) 47%, Schaffer (R) 41% [Rasmussen 5/19]

KS - Roberts (R) 52%, Slattery (D) 40% [Rasmussen 5/16]

KY - Lunsford (D) 49%, McConnell 44% [Rasmussen 5/22]

ME - Collins (R) 52%, Allen (D) 42% [Rasmussen 5/14]

MN - Coleman (R) 47%, Franken (D) 45% [Rasmussen 5/22]; Coleman 51%, Franken 44% [Star Tribune 5/12-15]

MS - Musgrove (D) 47%, Wicker (R) 46% [Rasmussen 5/27]; Wicker 46%, Musgrove 42% [Research 2000 5/19-21]

NE - Johanns (R) 58%, Kleeb (D) 31% [Research 2000 5/19-21]; Johanns 55%, Kleeb 40% [Rasmussen 5/15]

NH - Shaheen (D) 50%, Sununu (R) 43% [Rasmussen 5/21]

NM - Udall (D) 53-57%, Pearce/Wilson (R) 37-36% [Rasmussen 5/14]; Udall 60-61%, Pearce/Wilson 36-35% [SurveyUSA 5/12-13]

NC - Dole (R) 50%, Hagan (D) 46% [SurveyUSA 5/17-19]; Dole 45%, Hagan 43% [Civitas 5/14-17]; Dole 48%, Hagan 43% [PPP 5/8-9]; Hagan 48%, Dole 47% [Rasmussen 5/8]

OR - Smith (R) 45%, Merkley (D) 42% [DSCC 5/12-16]; Smith 45%, Merkley 42% [Rasmussen 5/7]

TX - Cornyn (R) 48%, Noriega (D) 44% [Research 2000 5/5-7]; Cornyn 47%, Noriega 43% [Rasmussen 5/1]

VA - Warner (D) 55%, Gilmore (R) 37% [Rasmussen 5/8]

* No recent polling for LA (our only endangered seat). Nothing for ID or OK, either.

The only race that really looks out of reach here is Nebraska. Otherwise, they're all up for grabs and we're already leading in SIX races (AK, CO, KY, NH, NM, VA). Now, I'll need to see another poll to buy that Lunsford has leaped ahead of the McConnell machine, but I'd really be surprised if we lost any of the other five races. That would give us 55 seats plus 10 decent chances to get some more (ID, KS, LA, ME, MN, MS, NC, OK, OR, TX). 60 seats is a real possibility.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

While I´m Stuck in Casa Central...

It´s pouring outside, so I´m gonna wait for it to die down a bit before catching a micro home. With nothing better to do, I figure I´ll start the obligatory debate on runningmates. Below are my short lists of the candidates with the most compelling reasons behind them.


Joe Biden - I have no doubt that Obama can challenge McCain on foreign policy and win in the minds of the experts. Obama is smarter than McCain, and virtually everyone else in the Senate for that matter. I also have no doubt that an audience of uncommitted voters would watch Obama reply to McCain´s attacks about talking to Hamas, etc. and come away torn. Sure Obama seems right, but he´s so young and inexperienced. Have Biden make the same arguments, and I´d be shocked to see any but the most militarist voters still in McCain´s camp on the issue. Biden simply takes all foreign policy concerns off of the table for the Republicans. He knows more than anybody else about virtually every subject and he speaks with a convincing earnestness and from obvious experience. Beyond that, he´s an Irish Catholic who easily connects with lower-middle class voters because he speaks their language. When he talks about faith, no one wonders if it´s an act. Indeed, he might be the Democrat most trusted by those who have seen him speak, which is ironic for obvious reasons (seriously though, if it weren´t for that Kinnock thing, I don´t doubt that he would have been our best candidate in 1988). Of course, he did vote for the bankruptcy bill, but so did 17 other Democratic Senators and 73 House Democrats. That doesn´t make it better, but it does make his sin less conspicuous.

Hillary Clinton - Yes, the political costs outweigh the political benefits. Yes, Bill Clinton on the campaign trail and in the White House would be a disastrous distraction. There´s just one reason I can´t dismiss her as an option. How much different would the media perception be between a government run by President Obama and Vice President Clinton compared to President Obama and Senate Majority Leader Clinton, by far the most powerful leader in Congress? Do you really think Bill would keep his mouth shut if Obama and Clinton got hung up on the details of implementing his healthcare plan or dealing with Iran? Would it look any less like the primary campaign has continued into Obama´s first 100 days? Would her ambition to run the country and be the face of the party suddenly subside? And if you answer that it might not make a smidge of difference, then where would you rather have Clinton in January 2009? In the prision of the vice presidency? Or running the Senate, where she can provoke petty fight after petty fight with a President who shares her party and her goals?

Janet Napolitano - First the obvious: she´s a woman and she´s might make McCain spend money in his home state. Second, Obama´s admiration for her is well-known and every sign points to them working well as a team. The best reason for choosing her is counter intuitive: she´s probably a lesbian. It will be talked about. It´ll never be polite conversation for Anderson Cooper or Chris Matthews, but Rush or Beck or somebody else will bring it up. And women will recoil and flood to her side like they did for Clinton in NH after they caught a wiff of misogyny from the talk radio crowd. Every woman who grew up in the 60s or later believes that they ought to be able to choose a career over a family, even while most of them don´t make that choice, at least not for their entire life. No woman believes that you ought to be called a dyke for doing so. And besides, America doesn´t hate gay people. Sure they make us uncomfortable. But when we see the right accuse a two-term governor and nominee for Vice President of, gasp!, being gay, we´ll see the Christian right for what they are, peddlers of hate and division. Tell me how that doesn´t work with Obama´s message.

Bill Richardson - I have little good to say about him, but he´s still an Hispanic governor of a southwestern state and McCain is still the best Republican friend a pro-life hispanic voter could have. That merits his inclusion in the list.

Ted Strickland - Don´t get me wrong, I´m not a particularly huge fan of Strickland, not that I have anything against him, either. But picking him would accomplish three important goals. One, it would be read by the media as a concession to the Clintonites. Two, it would obviously be a huge asset in Ohio. Most importantly Strickland, and his Methodist minister background, could dramatically help the ticket´s image among the Reagan Democrats that are voting for Clinton in primaries. Just look are his most recent job approval numbers from SurveyUSA. The top line, 54%-39%, is just like Strickland´s record. Not great, but not too shabby. Look a little deeper, though, and his numbers are astonishing. He wins a net positive rating from Republicans, while a plurality of Independents and 31% of Democrats disapprove. His net positive rating among whites is +20%, while it´s a dismal -14% among blacks. He has a net positive rating with both genders and in all age groups, but his numbers are strongest with the 65+ who give him a net positive of +44%. His numbers are nearly identical among pro-life voters as with pro-choice voters. The same holds true for gun owners versus non-gun owners, and evangelicals versus non-evangelicals. In other words, he has already bridged all of the divisions that Obama rails against. That is more than a symbolic coup. It could be a real asset in states that Obama´s post-partisan message has begun to put in play. It would also be a great help in rural areas of PA, MI, MN, WI, IA, MO (in other words, all of the big swing states not called Florida).

Purposely excluded: Tim Kaine and Jim Webb (McCain might be the best possible GOP nominee to hold VA. Neither has more than two years on the job. Whatever connection Kaine has with Catholics and workers can be got from Biden. Whatever post-partisan appeal Webb has Strickland matches. Plus Webb is a very divisive figure in his home state and his obsession with the Scots-Irish borders on terrifying). Evan Bayh (IN is not in play and he brings little else to the ticket). Tom Daschle (This blast from the past would seem odd next to Obama´s newness and youth. Besides, picking a Clinton-era Democrat that isn´t Clinton herself would be read as a shot at the Clintons.)

Disagree? Wanna add some names to my list? Wanna comment on the names that are on it? Think I´m wrong to exclude everyone I´ve excluded?

I´ll write about McCain´s choices the next time I get stuck somewhere.

Monday, May 19, 2008

KY and OR

I'm really just asking for OR picks, as I'll assume anybody who doesn't give me a KY pick is going with Clinton.

I got Obama in OR.

Monday, May 12, 2008

West Virginia

Unless anybody is insane, I'm just gonna give everybody 12 points for West Virginia. New standings coming soon.

UPDATE: New Standings

1) JJ 659.5
2) Joel 650
3) Joaquin 623
4) Devin 591.5
5) Geoff 589
6) Matt 371.5

Monday, May 5, 2008

IN and NC

Going back to the traditional point values, 12 points for each state. Gimme your picks.

Thursday, May 1, 2008

More Good News on the Legislature Front

Jennifer Burns is out. For now, her seat moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up.