Thursday, September 11, 2008

On the Senate Side...


We've got to fend off hard charges in LDs 23, 25, and 26, with LD26 being the really scary one.

LD23 Casa Grande-Florence-Coolidge-Maricopa-Eloy (R+4)
If Andre Campos wasn't a foot soldier in the Ron Paul Revolution, I'd truly be terrified of his last name in this district. As it stands, he'll still get a far higher share of the vote than a Paulite should ever get, even if it's only because of the R next to his name. If it turns out that he's not that crazy, I might change my rating on this one. For now, Sen. Rebecca Rios looks good (but honestly, when doesn't she?)
Race Rating: Likely Democratic

LD25 Gila Bend-Buckeye-Marana (R+1)
Previous election results tell the story here. Mary Ann Black lost to Sen. Marsha Arzberger by 15 points in 2006. Rep. Manny Alvarez has thrice won in 4-way races, never finishing below 1st place. I'm not criticizing Black's ability as a candidate, but in a district that has a history of electing Democrats, it would take someone a lot tougher to beat such an established Democratic name as Manny Alvarez.
Race Rating: Likely Democratic

LD26 Oro Valley-Catalina Foothills-Marana (R+4)
This is the race to watch in the state. Sen. Charlene Pesquiera beat Al Melvin by only 455 votes in 2006. There is no indication that his re-run against Cheryl Cage will be any less close.
Race Rating: Toss-Up


LD20 Ahwatukee-Chandler(R+3)
Nothing new here. I'm still on the Ted Maish bandwagon. This should be close.
Race Rating: Toss-Up

The races in LD9, LD10, LD11, LD12, and LD30 should be close-ish just based on the relative moderation of those districts, but I'll be shocked if we actually win any of them.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

State House Races Update

Here's my update of the House Side of the Leg. Races

Seats to Protect

LD5 Payson-Globe-Snowflake-Safford (R+14) - Sen. Sylvia Tenney Allen's departure from the House race, albeit under tragic circumstances, is a boon to Rep. Jack Brown's reelection efforts. Given the closeness of the 2004 race, Brown could have been in real trouble. He'll still face competition from former Payson Mayor Barbara Brewer, but just a quick comparison of the primary numbers from 2004 and this year help to confirm my suspicion that Brewer is a significantly weaker candidate than Allen would have been.
Race Rating Change: Toss-Up to Leans Democratic

LD10 Phoenix (R+4) - Well, out of the primary emerged a patsy runningmate for Rep. Jackie Thrasher in Lamont Lovejoy. As I wrote before, I never bought that we would be able to knock out the Speaker, and a patsy runningmate is fine by me (see my to-be-completed thesis). Anyway, this is an exact rematch of the 2006 race and I expect the results to be similar. Thrasher does have the advantage of incumbency this time, so I'm not panicked, but she's at a severe risk.
Race Rating: Toss-Up/SlightD

LD11 Phoenix-Paradise Valley(R+4) - 2007 Phoenix Council Candidate Jon Altmann and Adam Driggs will be a tough ticket to stop. Just take a look at Altmann's website and you'll see that he perfectly fits the profile of a successful Republican candidate in that district. Eric Meyer, the party supported write-in, made it on the ballot and will receive Clean Elections funds. Jon Hulburd did not. Meyer is an emergency room doctor and a member of the Scottsdale School Board.
Race Rating Change: Toss-Up/SlightD to Toss-Up/SlightR

LD24 Yuma (R+7) - Nothing has changed in this race. Rep. Theresa Ulmer is extraordinarily vulnerable to Russ Jones' single-shot effort. I would put good money on Jones holding a seat in the House next year.
Race Rating: Leans Republican

On Offense

Peoria-Sun City-Glendale (R+9) - Memory of Sheri Van Horsen's near victory in 2006 (she came less than 800 votes from beating Rep. Rick Murphy), keeps this race on the list. Obviously, I think she came so close because she was a single-shot, but I'm not all that disappointed that she'll be accompanied by Progressive Majority candidate Shawn Hutchinson. 1) She's already a known entity in the district from her 2006 run, so any drop-off (Dems voting once) should hurt Hutchinson, not her and 2) the strongest Republican candidate from 2006, Bob Stump, is gone. Murphy is joined by Former LD chair Debbie Lesko on the GOP ticket.
Race Rating: Leans Republican

Ahwatukee-Chandler (R+3) - Michael Williams will not be on the ballot here, but Rae Waters was the only Dem with a shot anyway. Unfortunately, Rep. John McComish survived the primary, so Waters will have to go after Jeff Dial to win a seat.
Race Rating Change: Leans Republican to Toss-up/SlightR

Chandler-Southwest Mesa-Queen Creek (R+9) - Everybody knows the rundown here. Phill came within 0.9% of beating Warde Nichols in 2006 and he's back for another single-shot run. I've got to give the coordinated some props for sticking with this race in pretty red territory.
Race Rating Change: Toss-Up/SlightR

LD30 Green Valley-Sierra Vista-Tanque Verde (R+7) - A single-shot in 2006 came 5 points away from knocking off incumbent Jon Paton. The GOP's got have a whole new ticket here, featuring third-time candidate David Gowen and good ol' Frank Antenori, so now is as good a time as any to take a single-shot to this district. Andrea Dalessandro is doing just that. That isn't great, but it's reasonably close and gives us some reason to hope that the well-organized Dalessandro (she was quick to get her $5's in) can put a scare into a couple of GOP newcomers.
Race Rating: Likely Republican

Complete Messes

LD23 Casa Grande-Florence-Coolidge-Maricopa-Eloy (R+4) - Incumbent Rep. Pete Rios is retiring, leaving first-termer Barbara McGuire as the only incumbent, but she's got a really strong runningmate in former Rep. Ernest Bustamante. The best news since my last round-up is that Cheryl Chase is not on the GOP ticket. Instead, they've got a re-run of their 2006 ticket with two-time previous candidate Frank Pratt, a pool builder, and John Fillmore the Prez of the AJ GOP club. This district is too close to say that McGuire is totally safe, so she'll keep her Likely Democratic rating. The second seat will be a dogfight, just like it was in 2006. Still, I'd like to think that Bustamante in 2008, with his resume, Hispanic surname, and pro-life position, will be a better candidate than McGuire was in 2006 and should have an easier time of winning the second seat.
Race Rating Change: McGuire's seat - Likely Democratic, Open Seat - Toss-up to Toss-Up/SlightD

Gila Bend-Buckeye-Marana (R+1) - This race is wide open. Richard Boyer, 2006 Corp Comm candidate, former NH legislator, and bucket hat enthusiast is making a run for a much smaller lower house than the one in which he served in NH. Patricia Fleming is also running. The Republicans have David Stevens, third-time candidate, president of the Christian Medical and Dental Association and a friend of the Center for AZ Policy and Timathy Davies. This district leans Democratic at the legislative level, so I'd be really shocked if we get swept here. Still, since this district has never elected an all Democratic delegation (as far as I know) we're in a real fight for that second seat.
Race Ratings Change: First seat - Leans Democratic, Second Seat - Leans Republican to Toss-Up.

Oro Valley-Catalina Foothills-Marana (R+4) - The Democratic ticket here is composed of the 3 candidates who went before the Pima County Board to replace Lena Seradnik. Rep. Nancy Young Wright was chosen out of that process. The PC's preferred candidate, Don Jorgenson, will be joining her in running for the House. Vic Williams, the LD26 Vice Chair, and Marilyn Zerull are the Republican ticket.
Race Ratings Change: Young Wright's seat - Leans Democratic, Open Seat - Toss-up to Toss-Up/SlightR

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Legislature Primary Results

So, I want to dedicate some time in the next few days to analyzing the primary results (with some insights coming from my conversation with Joaquin tonight), but I'm really tired, so for now I'm just going to publish all of the relevant results (I only talk about the dominant party in most districts).

LD1 Prescott-Sedona (R+8)
Moderate Sen. Tom O'Halleran booted by conservative activist Steve Pierce. Rep. Lucy Mason and Rep. Andy Tobin renominated without contest.

This was a moderate v. conservative race, yes (Pierce was the Chair of the Yavapai GOP). But it also came down to Pierce spending over $180k to O'Halleran's $52k.

LD2 Flagstaff (D+21)
Rep. Tom Chabin renominated, but he comes in a distant second (53.1% to 32.2%) to Chris Deschene in the three-way race.

LD3 Kingman-Bullhead-Lake Havasu (R+13)
Rep. Trish Groe and her multiple DUIs booted by Doris Goodale. Rep. Nancy McLain renominated.

LD4 Surprise-Peoria-Buckeye-Wickenburg(R+13)
Sen. Jack Harper crushes "Team Napolitano" candidate John Zerby. Rep. Tom Boone and Rep. Judy Burges renominated unopposed.

LD5 Payson-Globe-Snowflake-Safford (R+14)
Everything in this district depends on pending write-in counts, but it looks as though Rep. Jack Brown will be running solo again "against" Rep. Bill Konopnicki and his "running-mate" Barbara Brewer, whom he ran ahead of by 16 points in the GOP primary. Sylvia Tenney Allen will take the Senate seat unopposed.

LD6 North Central Phoenix (R+10)
Carl Seel destroyed "Team Napolitano" candidate Tony Bouie (35.3% to 21.3%). Rep. Sam Crump renominated easily. Sen. Pamela Gordon renominated unopposed.

LD7 Northeast Phoenix-Cave Creek (R+10)
Sen. Jim Waring, Rep. Ray Barnes, and Rep. Nancy Barto all ran unopposed.

LD8 Scottsdale-Fountain Hills (R+9)
Sen. Carolyn Allen, Rep. John Kavanagh, and Rep. Michele Reagan all ran unopposed.

LD9 Peoria-Sun City-Glendale (R+9)
Sen. Robert Burns, Rep. Rick Murphy, and Debbie Lesko all ran unopposed.

LD10 Phoenix (R+4)
Sen. Linda Gray and Martin Monroe ran unopposed in their respective Senate primaries. Speaker Weiers and former Rep. Doug Quelland ran unopposed in the Republican House primary. Lamont Lovejoy edged out Leonard Clark to run with Jackie Thrasher, who sailed easily.

LD11 Phoenix-Paradise Valley (R+4)
Rep. Adam Driggs and Jon Altmann nominated unopposed. No word yet on Democratic write-ins Jon Hulburd and Eric Meyer (remember, this is DeSimone's district). Sen. Barbara Leff and Democrat Ann Wallack ran unopposed.

LD12 Glendale-Goodyear-El Mirage-Litchfield Park (R+8)
Rep. John Nelson and Angela Cotera nominated unopposed for the Senate. Sen. Robert Blendu ousted in the House primary by Steve Montenegro. Rep. Jerry Weiers sailed. Eve Nunez and David Scanlon nominated unopposed on the Democratic side.

LD13 Avondale-Tolleson-Phoenix (D+8)
Sen. Richard Miranda, Rep. Steve Gallardo, and Rep. Martha Garcia renominated unopposed.

LD14 Phoenix (D+11)
Rep. Chad Campbell and Rep. Robert Meza crushed John Valdez. Sen. Debbie McCune-Davis ran unopposed.

LD15 Phoenix (D+12)
Sen. Ken Cheuvront, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, and Rep. David Lujan renominated unopposed.

LD16 South Phoenix (D+18)
Rep. Ben Miranda and Rep. Cloves Campbell, Jr. held off challenges from Betty Doss Ware and Jimmie Munoz, Jr. Sen. Leah Landrum renominated unopposed.

LD17 Tempe-Scottsdale (D+7)
Sen. Meg Burton-Cahill, Rep. Ed Ableser, and Rep. David Schatz Schapira ran unopposed.

LD18 Northwest Mesa (R+12)
Rep. Russell Pearce beat "Team Napolitano" candidate Kevin Gibbons by over 37 points. Cecil Ash and Steve Court won the nominations for the two open House seats, with Court barely edging out Ron Middlebrook.

LD19 Northeast Mesa (R+14)
Sen. Chuck Gray, Rep. Kirk Adams, and Rep. Rich Crandall all ran unopposed.

LD20 Ahwatukee-Chandler(R+3)
Rep. John McComish ousted by Jeff Dial and Frank Schmuck. Sen. John Huppenthal and Ted Maish nominated unopposed. No word yet on Michael Williams' write-in bid for the 2nd House slot.

LD21 Chandler-Southwest Mesa-Queen Creek (R+9)
Sen. Jay Tibshraeny, Rep. Warde Nichols, Rep. Jim Yarbrough and Phil Hettmansperger all nominated unopposed.

LD22 Gilbert-Southeast Mesa (R+15)
Sen. Thayer Verschoor barely hung on against Rep. Eddie Farnsworth and likely owes his victory to the 19% pulled in by Joe Bedgood. Rep. Andy Biggs was easily renominated, while Laurin Hendrix won the second House slot.

LD23 Casa Grande-Florence-Coolidge-Maricopa-Eloy (R+4)
Rep. Barbara McGuire renominated along with former Rep. Ernest Bustamante. John Fillmore and Frank Pratt nominated uncontested by the GOP. Sen. Rebecca Rios and Ron Paul activist Andre Campos also nominated uncontested.

LD24 Yuma (R+7)
Sen. Amanda Aguirre's only opponent will be a Green. Rep. Lynne Pancrazi, Rep. Theresa Ulmer, and Russ Jones all nominated unopposed.

LD25 Gila Bend-Buckeye-Marana (R+1)
Rep. Manny Alvarez (for Senate), Pat Fleming and Ric Boyer won the Democratic nominations uncontested. Mary Ann Black, Timathy Davies, and David Stevens won the Republican nominations uncontested.

LD26 Oro Valley-Catalina Foothills-Marana (R+4)
Al Melvin edged out Rep. Pete Hershberger in the Senate primary, giving some hope to Cheryl Cage. RINO Vic Williams, and SA prodigy Trent Humphries won a very close race against Marilyn Zerull. Rep. Nancy Young Wright and Don Jorgenson nominated unopposed.

LD27 West Tucson (D+15)
Rep. Olivia Cajero Bedford and Rep. Phil Lopes crushed John Kromko. Sen. Jorge Garcia renominated unopposed.

LD28 Central Tucson (D+13)
Sen. Paula Aboud, Rep. David Bradley, and Rep. Steve Farley all ran unopposed.

LD29 South Tucson (D+10)
Rep. Tom Prezelski ousted by Matt Heinz and Daniel Patterson. Rep. Linda Lopez nominated unopposed for the Senate.

LD30 Green Valley-Sierra Vista-Tanque Verde (R+7)
David Gowan and Frank Antenori won a very close 4-way House primary. Andrea Dalessandro nominated unopposed on the Democratic side. Rep. Jonathan Paton and Georgette Valle nominated unopposed for the Senate.