Thursday, September 11, 2008

On the Senate Side...


We've got to fend off hard charges in LDs 23, 25, and 26, with LD26 being the really scary one.

LD23 Casa Grande-Florence-Coolidge-Maricopa-Eloy (R+4)
If Andre Campos wasn't a foot soldier in the Ron Paul Revolution, I'd truly be terrified of his last name in this district. As it stands, he'll still get a far higher share of the vote than a Paulite should ever get, even if it's only because of the R next to his name. If it turns out that he's not that crazy, I might change my rating on this one. For now, Sen. Rebecca Rios looks good (but honestly, when doesn't she?)
Race Rating: Likely Democratic

LD25 Gila Bend-Buckeye-Marana (R+1)
Previous election results tell the story here. Mary Ann Black lost to Sen. Marsha Arzberger by 15 points in 2006. Rep. Manny Alvarez has thrice won in 4-way races, never finishing below 1st place. I'm not criticizing Black's ability as a candidate, but in a district that has a history of electing Democrats, it would take someone a lot tougher to beat such an established Democratic name as Manny Alvarez.
Race Rating: Likely Democratic

LD26 Oro Valley-Catalina Foothills-Marana (R+4)
This is the race to watch in the state. Sen. Charlene Pesquiera beat Al Melvin by only 455 votes in 2006. There is no indication that his re-run against Cheryl Cage will be any less close.
Race Rating: Toss-Up


LD20 Ahwatukee-Chandler(R+3)
Nothing new here. I'm still on the Ted Maish bandwagon. This should be close.
Race Rating: Toss-Up

The races in LD9, LD10, LD11, LD12, and LD30 should be close-ish just based on the relative moderation of those districts, but I'll be shocked if we actually win any of them.

1 comment:

Espo said...

ON the Write-Ins:

The state party endorsed and supported ones made it on the ballot, Michael Williams did not.