Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Quick Senate Poll Rundown

In case you haven't seen these numbers, take a look. Something remarkable is happening.

AK - Begich (D) 48%, Stevens (R) 43% [Research 2000 5/12-14]; Begich 47%, Stevens 45% [Rasmussen 5/14]

CO - Udall (D) 47%, Schaffer (R) 41% [Rasmussen 5/19]

KS - Roberts (R) 52%, Slattery (D) 40% [Rasmussen 5/16]

KY - Lunsford (D) 49%, McConnell 44% [Rasmussen 5/22]

ME - Collins (R) 52%, Allen (D) 42% [Rasmussen 5/14]

MN - Coleman (R) 47%, Franken (D) 45% [Rasmussen 5/22]; Coleman 51%, Franken 44% [Star Tribune 5/12-15]

MS - Musgrove (D) 47%, Wicker (R) 46% [Rasmussen 5/27]; Wicker 46%, Musgrove 42% [Research 2000 5/19-21]

NE - Johanns (R) 58%, Kleeb (D) 31% [Research 2000 5/19-21]; Johanns 55%, Kleeb 40% [Rasmussen 5/15]

NH - Shaheen (D) 50%, Sununu (R) 43% [Rasmussen 5/21]

NM - Udall (D) 53-57%, Pearce/Wilson (R) 37-36% [Rasmussen 5/14]; Udall 60-61%, Pearce/Wilson 36-35% [SurveyUSA 5/12-13]

NC - Dole (R) 50%, Hagan (D) 46% [SurveyUSA 5/17-19]; Dole 45%, Hagan 43% [Civitas 5/14-17]; Dole 48%, Hagan 43% [PPP 5/8-9]; Hagan 48%, Dole 47% [Rasmussen 5/8]

OR - Smith (R) 45%, Merkley (D) 42% [DSCC 5/12-16]; Smith 45%, Merkley 42% [Rasmussen 5/7]

TX - Cornyn (R) 48%, Noriega (D) 44% [Research 2000 5/5-7]; Cornyn 47%, Noriega 43% [Rasmussen 5/1]

VA - Warner (D) 55%, Gilmore (R) 37% [Rasmussen 5/8]

* No recent polling for LA (our only endangered seat). Nothing for ID or OK, either.

The only race that really looks out of reach here is Nebraska. Otherwise, they're all up for grabs and we're already leading in SIX races (AK, CO, KY, NH, NM, VA). Now, I'll need to see another poll to buy that Lunsford has leaped ahead of the McConnell machine, but I'd really be surprised if we lost any of the other five races. That would give us 55 seats plus 10 decent chances to get some more (ID, KS, LA, ME, MN, MS, NC, OK, OR, TX). 60 seats is a real possibility.

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