Thursday, January 31, 2008
I've made some changes to the info in the margin. First, I'll be daily updating the Feb. 5th state-by-state poll averages. As we get new polls sans Edwards and Giuliani, I'll drop their names from the averages. Also, now that we're getting polls more frequently, I'll only include polls that are no more than two weeks old in my averages. I've also changed the delegate numbers to reflect the number of delegates that will actually be allocated based on the results on Super Tuesday. In most states, there is some number of delegates that will be chosen in a way that does not at all reflect the results of Tuesday's primary. In some states, the Republican primary is totally unrelated to delegate selection, or is related in an arbitrary and undefined way. Second, you'll notice parentheses next to the actual numbers in the national polls. The numbers in those parentheses reflect the change in each candidate's standing since Edwards/Giuliani dropped out. Third, I'll have daily updates of projected delegate counts based (as closely as possible) on the various rules employed in each state (although the rules are consistent on our side). Since we don't have polls for every state, it's impossible to allocate all of the delegates. Those will be listed as "unallocated". I should also note that I'm using the RCP super-delegate counts. Other news agencies will give slightly different numbers.