Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Rehashing the General Election Polls

Now that we have a (relatively) prohibitive front-runner, I'd like to take a deeper look at those state-by-state SurveyUSA polls with regard to our nightmare, John McCain. We've also got newer polls from a handful of other states.

The Midwest is exactly what we would expect, a battleground. Unfortunately, McCain looks to have the early edge in the region.

Ohio goes 48%-46% and 50%-43% for McCain over Clinton and Obama, respectively. Minnesota is 49%-45% and 49%-42%. Wisconsin, 49%-45% and 46%-44%. Missouri stays in their camp, 50%-44% and 51%-40%. The only bright spot is Iowa, where Obama wins 55%-38% (Clinton loses 44%-48%).

Three red states, states that other potential GOP nominees would have risked losing, appear safe for McCain. He wins Alabama by 21% over Clinton and 33% over Obama. Kansas is 53%-40% and 53%-39%. Kentucky is 51%-41% and 54%-35%.

A couple of swing states look like anything but. McCain locks up Virginia 52%-43% against Clinton and 52%-40% against Obama. New Mexico goes 51%-42% and 50%-41% for McCain.

The Pacific Northwest is completely up for grabs. McCain ties Obama 47%-47% in Oregon and actually beats Clinton 49%-45%. He beats her in blue Washington, too, by a 49%-46% margin, though Obama holds it, 52%-43%.

At least we've got the big northeastern states firmly in our column, right? Not exactly. Clinton's 13% margin of victory in New York looks good compared to Obama's meager 49%-43% win. Massachusetts is a nightmare. Clinton barely holds it, 49%-45%, while Obama actually loses, by a 50%-45% margin.

California looks OK, though. Clinton wins 57%-38%. Obama wins 50%-44%. That's not great, but it's not terrifying, either.

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