Saturday, January 5, 2008

Which Firm Was the Most Accurate in NH in '04?

Here are the actual results from 2004:
Kerry 38%
Dean 26%
Clark 12%
Edwards 12%
Lieberman 9%
Kucinich 1%

Below are the final polls from the four firms that did tracking polls in 2004 and are polling again in 2008. In each case, the deviation from the actual results is in ().

ARG
Kerry 35% (-3)
Dean 25% (-1)
Clark 13% (+1)
Edwards 15% (+3)
Lieberman 6% (-3)
Kucinich 1% (--)

Suffolk Univ.
Kerry 37% (-1)
Dean 19% (-7)
Clark 8% (-4)
Edwards 8% (-4)
Lieberman 8% (-1)
Kucinich 0% (-1)

UNH
Kerry 36% (-2)
Dean 25% (-1)
Clark 11% (-1)
Edwards 13% (+1)
Lieberman 7% (-2)
Kucinich 3% (+2)

Zogby
Kerry 37% (-1)
Dean 24% (-2)
Clark 9% (-3)
Edwards 12% (--)
Lieberman 9% (--)
Kucinich 3% (+2)

As you can see, every firm, with the notable exception of Suffolk University, did pretty well across the board. So, just don't trust Suffolk, I guess.

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