Monday, January 21, 2008

Rasmussen Florida Poll Shows Surprising Trend

This was conducted yesterday (great thing about Rasmussen is the 24-hour poll). Trends from a week ago:

Romney 25% (+7)
McCain 20% (+1)
Giuliani 19% (+1)
Huckabee 13% (-4)
Thompson 12% (+1)
Paul 5% (--)

As you can see, no boost for McCain as we might have expected. Instead, it looks like Huckabee collapsed after losing South Carolina and Romney is taking in the new group of wayward social conservatives. There's further evidence for that in the cross-tabs Rasmussen released (they are selective about cross-tabs, so we don't have trends on these numbers). Romney wins self-IDed conservatives with 28% to Rudy's 18%. Huckabee is at best 3rd with that group. More telling, Huckabee's lead among Evangelicals is only 25% to 20% for Romney and 17% for Thompson. I have to assume that Huckabee's numbers in each of those groups were better before South Carolina (and that Romney's weren't as great). This is only one poll, but it reveals a surprising, yet plausible trend. We'll see if other polls back it up.

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