Tuesday, January 22, 2008

It's the Economy/Latinos, Stupid!

The cross-tabs from the latest California Field Poll reveal two giant problems for Obama in his efforts to win in California and just about everywhere. Before I drop the numbers (like they're hot), I should mention that the sample size is only 377 LV, so there is some risk inherent in looking too closely at subgroups.

Here are the numbers by race:

Whites: 32%-30%
Latinos 59%-19%
Blacks: 24%-58%
Asians/Others: 41%-22%

Voters were also given a list of issues and asked if they were among the "most important" in making up their minds. The greatest differences among Clinton's voters and Obama's voters were on "Jobs and the economy" and "foreign policy". 61% of Clinton's voters called the economy important, to only 29% of Obama's voters. Conversely, 44% of Obama's voters said the same about foreign policy, to 19% among Clinton's voters. Those different priorities jive with the class gap between Clinton voters and Obama voters.

Clearly, Obama needs to do a better job speaking to Latinos and to all Americans concerned about the economy. I guess we kinda already knew that. Haha. Let's see if he can do it.

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