Friday, November 30, 2007

Slew of New Early State Polls

I'm not going to post all of the polls, but I have updated the RCP averages along the margins. You may notice that Obama has sneaked past HRC in Iowa and that Huckabee has moved into 4th in each New Hampshire (passing Ron Paul) and South Carolina (passing John McCain).

There is one set of numbers that I want to draw your attention to. American Research Group asked supporters of each of the main candidates in Iowa if their support of that candidate was "definite".

Here were the results (overall % in parentheses):

Clinton 80% (25)
Obama 75% (27)
Edwards 57% (23)

I've heard some speculation that Edwards might collapse in these final weeks, leaving Iowa a two-way affair, or even serving as an opening for Richardson or the surging (in Iowa, at least) Biden. These numbers seem to indicate that such speculation might not be far off.

Huckabee 89% (27)
Thompson 75% (14)
McCain 71% (9)
Romney 56% (28)

I don't know why they didn't poll Giuliani supporters (they made up 9%, the same as McCain supporters), but I'm sure his number would be in the 70s along with McCain's and Thompson's. Regardless, Huckabee's figure shows that he is not going away. Even if he falls back to only those supporters who are "definite," he'll still walk away with 1/4 of the vote.

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