The "Electability" Question Pt. 1

I wish there were some other term, because I've always hated it when this factor is termed "electability". Maybe in 2004 that kind of talk was appropriate, but I find it difficult to say that any of our major candidates for 2008 are totally unelectable. We need a new term to measure the "electa-likelihood" of a candidate.

Anyway, I've been meaning to post SurveyUSA's latest state-by-state general election polls for some time. There are two sets of polls. The first, conducted in late September and early October, pairs Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson against Clinton, Edwards, and Obama in each of 17 different states, most of them swing states. The second, conducted in late October, pits HRC against Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, Huckabee, McCain, and Paul. They also threw in a Gore v. Giuliani match-up just for kicks.

A caveat:

These are polls done one year before what are still hypothetical elections. That said, the extended primary period does give many voters their first impressions of the main candidates long before the general election begins.

Here's how the 3 front-running Democrats match up against Il Duce, by region:

South

Alabama
Giuliani 52% Clinton 41%
Giuliani 59% Obama 32%
Giuliani 50% Edwards 40%

Florida
Giuliani 43% Clinton 49%
Giuliani 50% Obama 41%
Giuliani 48% Edwards 43%

Kentucky
Giuliani 51% Clinton 41%
Giuliani 54% Obama 36%
Giuliani 50% Edwards 43%

Virginia
Giuliani 44% Clinton 50%
Giuliani 45% Obama 46%
Giuliani 43% Edwards 48%

Region Commentary: Hillary's unique strength in Florida is what sticks out here. It's also remarkable to see how much worse Obama does in the South against Rudy than do Hillary and Edwards. Racism?

Northeast

Massachusetts
Giuliani 34% Clinton 59%
Giuliani 43% Obama 48%
Giuliani 40% Edwards 48%

New York
Giuliani 35% Clinton 59%
Giuliani 44% Obama 49%
Giuliani 46% Edwards 45%

Region Commentary: Clearly, it's worrisome to see Rudy do so well in two large and deeply blue states against both Obama and Edwards. To be fair, I doubt that he would actually win either state against any Democrat, but making a Democrat spend money in either of these states is a win all by itself. What's worse is the implication these numbers have for more purplish states in this region (CT, DE, ME. MD, NJ) Once again, regionalism appears to be alive and well in American politics.

Midwest

Iowa
Giuliani 42% Clinton 50%
Giuliani 42% Obama 50%
Giuliani 39% Edwards 53%

Kansas
Giuliani 52% Clinton 40%
Giuliani 51% Obama 40%
Giuliani 50% Edwards 40%

Minnesota
Giuliani 41% Clinton 52%
Giuliani 43% Obama 47%
Giuliani 40% Edwards 48%

Missouri
Giuliani 48% Clinton 45%
Giuliani 44% Obama 46%
Giuliani 42% Edwards 47%

Ohio
Giuliani 48% Clinton 47%
Giuliani 52% Obama 39%
Giuliani 48% Edwards 47%

Oklahoma
Giuliani 47% Clinton 44%
Giuliani 54% Obama 33%
Giuliani 40% Edwards 49%

Wisconsin
Giuliani 44% Clinton 48%
Giuliani 43% Obama 46%
Giuliani 45% Edwards 44%

Region Commentary: Edwards is clearly the strongest candidate here, while Obama is clearly the weakest. Edwards and Clinton both dominate in MN, while Obama's lead is far smaller. Edwards holds a modest lead in MO, while Clinton and Obama are in dogfights. OH is shockingly bad news for Obama (against Giuliani, at least). In OK, Edwards not only holds his own, he crushes Giuliani. It's hard to look at this region as anything other than very good for Edwards, okay for Clinton, and very poor for Obama.

West

California
Giuliani 37% Clinton 57%
Giuliani 44% Obama 48%
Giuliani 44% Edwards 46%

New Mexico
Giuliani 43% Clinton 51%
Giuliani 46% Obama 46%
Giuliani 44% Edwards 48%

Oregon
Giuliani 44% Clinton 48%
Giuliani 46% Obama 46%
Giuliani 44% Edwards 47%

Washington
Giuliani 47% Clinton 47%
Giuliani 41% Obama 52%
Giuliani 44% Edwards 45%

Region Commentary: Those California numbers are clearly the story here. Giuliani's claim to blue-state appeal seems to be valid, unless it's countered by Hillary. Beyond that, I'm curious why Hillary and Obama are the runaway favorites in New Mexico and Washington, respectively.

Finally, some national numbers. These 3 match-ups have all been tested in recent Newsweek, Quinnipiac, and Rasmussen polls. Here they are:

Newsweek
Giuliani 45% Clinton 49%
Giuliani 45% Obama 48%
Giuliani 45% Edwards 48%

Quinnipiac
Giuliani 45% Clinton 43%
Giuliani 42% Obama 43%
Giuliani 44% Edwards 41%

Rasmussen
Giuliani 46% Clinton 44%
Giuliani 45% Obama 43%
Giuliani 45% Edwards 44%

And that's why the state-by-states are the only polls that should be used in judging a candidate's "electability" against Giuliani.