Monday, November 19, 2007

45 Days From Iowa, A Look at the Polls

It's been a while since my last poll round-up, so now seems as good a time as any.

To the numbers! The "numbers" are Real Clear Politics averages of recent polls.

Our side:

Iowa (Jan. 3rd)
Clinton 27.2%
Obama 24.8%
Edwards 21.8%
Richardson 10.3%
Biden 4.2%

Recent polls show that Clinton might be leveling off a bit. Obama is on a slight upward trend. Edwards and Richardson seem to have settled in around 22% and 10%, respectively. Biden might be seeing the beginning of a small bump.

New Hampshire (likely Jan. 8th)
Clinton 36.0%
Obama 23.0%
Edwards 13.2%
Richardson 8.4%

Clinton lost about 5 points after the debate screw up. She looks to have peaked for a while. Obama picked up about half of those points and is gaining a bit. Edwards is holding steady, while Richardson may be gaining a bit on the pack.

Nevada (Jan. 19th)
Clinton 42.3%
Obama 21.0%
Edwards 11.7%
Richardson 6.3%

All four candidates, Clinton, Obama, Edwards, and Richardson have held remarkably steady. That's probably a sign that very few eventual caucus-goers have started paying attention.

South Carolina (Jan. 26th)
Clinton 40.3%
Obama 25.0%
Edwards 12.7%

These numbers have been totally erratic. Clinton has ranged from 32-47%, Obama from 19-33%, and Edwards from 7-24%. At the other extreme from Nevada's numbers, this could still be an indication that voters here are paying less attention than their counterparts in Iowa or New Hampshire.

The dark side:

Iowa (Jan. 3rd)
Romney 27.8%
Huckabee 19,6%
Giuliani 13.8%
Thompson 11.0%
McCain 6.6%
Paul 4.2%

In general, numbers on the GOP side are a bit less stable than on our side. Still, it's possible to identify when the numbers vary around a relatively flat trend and when they are a sign of a surge or a fade. Here,
Romney has settled in just under 30%. Huckabee is on fire and could soon be posting averages in the 20s. Giuliani is fairly stable right around 15%. Thompson, McCain, and Paul are also holding steady around 11%, 7% and 4%, respectively.

New Hampshire (likely Jan. 8th)
Romney 33.0%
Giuliani 18.4%
McCain 16.2%
Paul 6.8%
Huckabee 6.6%
Thompson 4.8%

Romney's lead is growing by leaps and bounds, but 33% may be the peak of that growth. Giuliani is probably steady around 18%. McCain's rebound has put him right around Giuliani territory. These two are effectively tied for 2nd. Paul is getting close to flirting with double digits. Huckabee is a little bit all over the map, but probably won't fall below 5%. Thompson is in total free-fall.

Nevada (Jan. 19th)
Giuliani 29.0%
Romney 22.0%
Thompson 14.8%
McCain 10.0%
Paul 4.3%
Huckabee 3.3%

Numbers here have been erratic, probably because polls have been sparse. We can be fairly confident that Giuliani is around 30% and has a 6-8 point lead over Romney who is holding steady around 22%. Thompson is all over the map. He could be anywhere from 4th to 2nd in this state, but is probably in a rough tie with McCain in the low teens. Paul appears to be surging and nearing double digits. Huckabee has a handful, around 4% or 5%, but isn't exactly taking off.

South Carolina (Jan. 19th)
Romney 20.5%
Giuliani 20.5%
Thompson 16.8%
McCain 13.0%
Huckabee 8.3%

This is a 3-tiered race.
Romney is climbing into a small lead over Giuliani. Both men have about a 5-6 point lead on each Thompson and McCain. Huckabee might be climbing into that second tier, but for now he is sitting at around 10%.

Florida (Jan. 29th)
Giuliani 34.3%
Romney 15.8%
Thompson 13.8%
McCain 11.3%
Huckabee 8.8%

Giuliani is in the process of stretching his lead. He probably owes his surge to Romney's stall and especially to Thompson's collapse. McCain and Huckabee are locked in a virtual tie around 10%.

No comments: