Thursday, October 23, 2008
The Ed Hermes Campaign Launches Its Blog
OK, so the blog was launched a while ago, but it's just another sign that Hermes has built an organization that can change politics in Maricopa County, and that's good if you, like me, prefer accountable government.
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Thursday, September 11, 2008
On the Senate Side...
Defense
We've got to fend off hard charges in LDs 23, 25, and 26, with LD26 being the really scary one.
LD23 Casa Grande-Florence-Coolidge-Maricopa-Eloy (R+4)
If Andre Campos wasn't a foot soldier in the Ron Paul Revolution, I'd truly be terrified of his last name in this district. As it stands, he'll still get a far higher share of the vote than a Paulite should ever get, even if it's only because of the R next to his name. If it turns out that he's not that crazy, I might change my rating on this one. For now, Sen. Rebecca Rios looks good (but honestly, when doesn't she?)
Race Rating: Likely Democratic
LD25 Gila Bend-Buckeye-Marana (R+1)
Previous election results tell the story here. Mary Ann Black lost to Sen. Marsha Arzberger by 15 points in 2006. Rep. Manny Alvarez has thrice won in 4-way races, never finishing below 1st place. I'm not criticizing Black's ability as a candidate, but in a district that has a history of electing Democrats, it would take someone a lot tougher to beat such an established Democratic name as Manny Alvarez.
Race Rating: Likely Democratic
LD26 Oro Valley-Catalina Foothills-Marana (R+4)
This is the race to watch in the state. Sen. Charlene Pesquiera beat Al Melvin by only 455 votes in 2006. There is no indication that his re-run against Cheryl Cage will be any less close.
Race Rating: Toss-Up
Offense
LD20 Ahwatukee-Chandler(R+3)
Nothing new here. I'm still on the Ted Maish bandwagon. This should be close.
Race Rating: Toss-Up
The races in LD9, LD10, LD11, LD12, and LD30 should be close-ish just based on the relative moderation of those districts, but I'll be shocked if we actually win any of them.
We've got to fend off hard charges in LDs 23, 25, and 26, with LD26 being the really scary one.
LD23 Casa Grande-Florence-Coolidge-Maricopa-Eloy (R+4)
If Andre Campos wasn't a foot soldier in the Ron Paul Revolution, I'd truly be terrified of his last name in this district. As it stands, he'll still get a far higher share of the vote than a Paulite should ever get, even if it's only because of the R next to his name. If it turns out that he's not that crazy, I might change my rating on this one. For now, Sen. Rebecca Rios looks good (but honestly, when doesn't she?)
Race Rating: Likely Democratic
LD25 Gila Bend-Buckeye-Marana (R+1)
Previous election results tell the story here. Mary Ann Black lost to Sen. Marsha Arzberger by 15 points in 2006. Rep. Manny Alvarez has thrice won in 4-way races, never finishing below 1st place. I'm not criticizing Black's ability as a candidate, but in a district that has a history of electing Democrats, it would take someone a lot tougher to beat such an established Democratic name as Manny Alvarez.
Race Rating: Likely Democratic
LD26 Oro Valley-Catalina Foothills-Marana (R+4)
This is the race to watch in the state. Sen. Charlene Pesquiera beat Al Melvin by only 455 votes in 2006. There is no indication that his re-run against Cheryl Cage will be any less close.
Race Rating: Toss-Up
Offense
LD20 Ahwatukee-Chandler(R+3)
Nothing new here. I'm still on the Ted Maish bandwagon. This should be close.
Race Rating: Toss-Up
The races in LD9, LD10, LD11, LD12, and LD30 should be close-ish just based on the relative moderation of those districts, but I'll be shocked if we actually win any of them.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
State House Races Update
Here's my update of the House Side of the Leg. Races
Seats to Protect
LD5 Payson-Globe-Snowflake-Safford (R+14) - Sen. Sylvia Tenney Allen's departure from the House race, albeit under tragic circumstances, is a boon to Rep. Jack Brown's reelection efforts. Given the closeness of the 2004 race, Brown could have been in real trouble. He'll still face competition from former Payson Mayor Barbara Brewer, but just a quick comparison of the primary numbers from 2004 and this year help to confirm my suspicion that Brewer is a significantly weaker candidate than Allen would have been.
Race Rating Change: Toss-Up to Leans Democratic
LD10 Phoenix (R+4) - Well, out of the primary emerged a patsy runningmate for Rep. Jackie Thrasher in Lamont Lovejoy. As I wrote before, I never bought that we would be able to knock out the Speaker, and a patsy runningmate is fine by me (see my to-be-completed thesis). Anyway, this is an exact rematch of the 2006 race and I expect the results to be similar. Thrasher does have the advantage of incumbency this time, so I'm not panicked, but she's at a severe risk.
Race Rating: Toss-Up/SlightD
LD11 Phoenix-Paradise Valley(R+4) - 2007 Phoenix Council Candidate Jon Altmann and Adam Driggs will be a tough ticket to stop. Just take a look at Altmann's website and you'll see that he perfectly fits the profile of a successful Republican candidate in that district. Eric Meyer, the party supported write-in, made it on the ballot and will receive Clean Elections funds. Jon Hulburd did not. Meyer is an emergency room doctor and a member of the Scottsdale School Board.
Race Rating Change: Toss-Up/SlightD to Toss-Up/SlightR
LD24 Yuma (R+7) - Nothing has changed in this race. Rep. Theresa Ulmer is extraordinarily vulnerable to Russ Jones' single-shot effort. I would put good money on Jones holding a seat in the House next year.
Race Rating: Leans Republican
On Offense
LD9 Peoria-Sun City-Glendale (R+9) - Memory of Sheri Van Horsen's near victory in 2006 (she came less than 800 votes from beating Rep. Rick Murphy), keeps this race on the list. Obviously, I think she came so close because she was a single-shot, but I'm not all that disappointed that she'll be accompanied by Progressive Majority candidate Shawn Hutchinson. 1) She's already a known entity in the district from her 2006 run, so any drop-off (Dems voting once) should hurt Hutchinson, not her and 2) the strongest Republican candidate from 2006, Bob Stump, is gone. Murphy is joined by Former LD chair Debbie Lesko on the GOP ticket.
Race Rating: Leans Republican
LD20 Ahwatukee-Chandler (R+3) - Michael Williams will not be on the ballot here, but Rae Waters was the only Dem with a shot anyway. Unfortunately, Rep. John McComish survived the primary, so Waters will have to go after Jeff Dial to win a seat.
Race Rating Change: Leans Republican to Toss-up/SlightR
LD21 Chandler-Southwest Mesa-Queen Creek (R+9) - Everybody knows the rundown here. Phill came within 0.9% of beating Warde Nichols in 2006 and he's back for another single-shot run. I've got to give the coordinated some props for sticking with this race in pretty red territory.
Race Rating Change: Toss-Up/SlightR
LD30 Green Valley-Sierra Vista-Tanque Verde (R+7) - A single-shot in 2006 came 5 points away from knocking off incumbent Jon Paton. The GOP's got have a whole new ticket here, featuring third-time candidate David Gowen and good ol' Frank Antenori, so now is as good a time as any to take a single-shot to this district. Andrea Dalessandro is doing just that. That isn't great, but it's reasonably close and gives us some reason to hope that the well-organized Dalessandro (she was quick to get her $5's in) can put a scare into a couple of GOP newcomers.
Race Rating: Likely Republican
Complete Messes
LD23 Casa Grande-Florence-Coolidge-Maricopa-Eloy (R+4) - Incumbent Rep. Pete Rios is retiring, leaving first-termer Barbara McGuire as the only incumbent, but she's got a really strong runningmate in former Rep. Ernest Bustamante. The best news since my last round-up is that Cheryl Chase is not on the GOP ticket. Instead, they've got a re-run of their 2006 ticket with two-time previous candidate Frank Pratt, a pool builder, and John Fillmore the Prez of the AJ GOP club. This district is too close to say that McGuire is totally safe, so she'll keep her Likely Democratic rating. The second seat will be a dogfight, just like it was in 2006. Still, I'd like to think that Bustamante in 2008, with his resume, Hispanic surname, and pro-life position, will be a better candidate than McGuire was in 2006 and should have an easier time of winning the second seat.
Race Rating Change: McGuire's seat - Likely Democratic, Open Seat - Toss-up to Toss-Up/SlightD
LD25 Gila Bend-Buckeye-Marana (R+1) - This race is wide open. Richard Boyer, 2006 Corp Comm candidate, former NH legislator, and bucket hat enthusiast is making a run for a much smaller lower house than the one in which he served in NH. Patricia Fleming is also running. The Republicans have David Stevens, third-time candidate, president of the Christian Medical and Dental Association and a friend of the Center for AZ Policy and Timathy Davies. This district leans Democratic at the legislative level, so I'd be really shocked if we get swept here. Still, since this district has never elected an all Democratic delegation (as far as I know) we're in a real fight for that second seat.
Race Ratings Change: First seat - Leans Democratic, Second Seat - Leans Republican to Toss-Up.
LD26 Oro Valley-Catalina Foothills-Marana (R+4) - The Democratic ticket here is composed of the 3 candidates who went before the Pima County Board to replace Lena Seradnik. Rep. Nancy Young Wright was chosen out of that process. The PC's preferred candidate, Don Jorgenson, will be joining her in running for the House. Vic Williams, the LD26 Vice Chair, and Marilyn Zerull are the Republican ticket.
Race Ratings Change: Young Wright's seat - Leans Democratic, Open Seat - Toss-up to Toss-Up/SlightR
Seats to Protect
LD5 Payson-Globe-Snowflake-Safford (R+14) - Sen. Sylvia Tenney Allen's departure from the House race, albeit under tragic circumstances, is a boon to Rep. Jack Brown's reelection efforts. Given the closeness of the 2004 race, Brown could have been in real trouble. He'll still face competition from former Payson Mayor Barbara Brewer, but just a quick comparison of the primary numbers from 2004 and this year help to confirm my suspicion that Brewer is a significantly weaker candidate than Allen would have been.
Race Rating Change: Toss-Up to Leans Democratic
LD10 Phoenix (R+4) - Well, out of the primary emerged a patsy runningmate for Rep. Jackie Thrasher in Lamont Lovejoy. As I wrote before, I never bought that we would be able to knock out the Speaker, and a patsy runningmate is fine by me (see my to-be-completed thesis). Anyway, this is an exact rematch of the 2006 race and I expect the results to be similar. Thrasher does have the advantage of incumbency this time, so I'm not panicked, but she's at a severe risk.
Race Rating: Toss-Up/SlightD
LD11 Phoenix-Paradise Valley(R+4) - 2007 Phoenix Council Candidate Jon Altmann and Adam Driggs will be a tough ticket to stop. Just take a look at Altmann's website and you'll see that he perfectly fits the profile of a successful Republican candidate in that district. Eric Meyer, the party supported write-in, made it on the ballot and will receive Clean Elections funds. Jon Hulburd did not. Meyer is an emergency room doctor and a member of the Scottsdale School Board.
Race Rating Change: Toss-Up/SlightD to Toss-Up/SlightR
LD24 Yuma (R+7) - Nothing has changed in this race. Rep. Theresa Ulmer is extraordinarily vulnerable to Russ Jones' single-shot effort. I would put good money on Jones holding a seat in the House next year.
Race Rating: Leans Republican
On Offense
LD9 Peoria-Sun City-Glendale (R+9) - Memory of Sheri Van Horsen's near victory in 2006 (she came less than 800 votes from beating Rep. Rick Murphy), keeps this race on the list. Obviously, I think she came so close because she was a single-shot, but I'm not all that disappointed that she'll be accompanied by Progressive Majority candidate Shawn Hutchinson. 1) She's already a known entity in the district from her 2006 run, so any drop-off (Dems voting once) should hurt Hutchinson, not her and 2) the strongest Republican candidate from 2006, Bob Stump, is gone. Murphy is joined by Former LD chair Debbie Lesko on the GOP ticket.
Race Rating: Leans Republican
LD20 Ahwatukee-Chandler (R+3) - Michael Williams will not be on the ballot here, but Rae Waters was the only Dem with a shot anyway. Unfortunately, Rep. John McComish survived the primary, so Waters will have to go after Jeff Dial to win a seat.
Race Rating Change: Leans Republican to Toss-up/SlightR
LD21 Chandler-Southwest Mesa-Queen Creek (R+9) - Everybody knows the rundown here. Phill came within 0.9% of beating Warde Nichols in 2006 and he's back for another single-shot run. I've got to give the coordinated some props for sticking with this race in pretty red territory.
Race Rating Change: Toss-Up/SlightR
LD30 Green Valley-Sierra Vista-Tanque Verde (R+7) - A single-shot in 2006 came 5 points away from knocking off incumbent Jon Paton. The GOP's got have a whole new ticket here, featuring third-time candidate David Gowen and good ol' Frank Antenori, so now is as good a time as any to take a single-shot to this district. Andrea Dalessandro is doing just that. That isn't great, but it's reasonably close and gives us some reason to hope that the well-organized Dalessandro (she was quick to get her $5's in) can put a scare into a couple of GOP newcomers.
Race Rating: Likely Republican
Complete Messes
LD23 Casa Grande-Florence-Coolidge-Maricopa-Eloy (R+4) - Incumbent Rep. Pete Rios is retiring, leaving first-termer Barbara McGuire as the only incumbent, but she's got a really strong runningmate in former Rep. Ernest Bustamante. The best news since my last round-up is that Cheryl Chase is not on the GOP ticket. Instead, they've got a re-run of their 2006 ticket with two-time previous candidate Frank Pratt, a pool builder, and John Fillmore the Prez of the AJ GOP club. This district is too close to say that McGuire is totally safe, so she'll keep her Likely Democratic rating. The second seat will be a dogfight, just like it was in 2006. Still, I'd like to think that Bustamante in 2008, with his resume, Hispanic surname, and pro-life position, will be a better candidate than McGuire was in 2006 and should have an easier time of winning the second seat.
Race Rating Change: McGuire's seat - Likely Democratic, Open Seat - Toss-up to Toss-Up/SlightD
LD25 Gila Bend-Buckeye-Marana (R+1) - This race is wide open. Richard Boyer, 2006 Corp Comm candidate, former NH legislator, and bucket hat enthusiast is making a run for a much smaller lower house than the one in which he served in NH. Patricia Fleming is also running. The Republicans have David Stevens, third-time candidate, president of the Christian Medical and Dental Association and a friend of the Center for AZ Policy and Timathy Davies. This district leans Democratic at the legislative level, so I'd be really shocked if we get swept here. Still, since this district has never elected an all Democratic delegation (as far as I know) we're in a real fight for that second seat.
Race Ratings Change: First seat - Leans Democratic, Second Seat - Leans Republican to Toss-Up.
LD26 Oro Valley-Catalina Foothills-Marana (R+4) - The Democratic ticket here is composed of the 3 candidates who went before the Pima County Board to replace Lena Seradnik. Rep. Nancy Young Wright was chosen out of that process. The PC's preferred candidate, Don Jorgenson, will be joining her in running for the House. Vic Williams, the LD26 Vice Chair, and Marilyn Zerull are the Republican ticket.
Race Ratings Change: Young Wright's seat - Leans Democratic, Open Seat - Toss-up to Toss-Up/SlightR
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Legislature Primary Results
So, I want to dedicate some time in the next few days to analyzing the primary results (with some insights coming from my conversation with Joaquin tonight), but I'm really tired, so for now I'm just going to publish all of the relevant results (I only talk about the dominant party in most districts).
LD1 Prescott-Sedona (R+8)
Moderate Sen. Tom O'Halleran booted by conservative activist Steve Pierce. Rep. Lucy Mason and Rep. Andy Tobin renominated without contest.
This was a moderate v. conservative race, yes (Pierce was the Chair of the Yavapai GOP). But it also came down to Pierce spending over $180k to O'Halleran's $52k.
LD2 Flagstaff (D+21)
Rep. Tom Chabin renominated, but he comes in a distant second (53.1% to 32.2%) to Chris Deschene in the three-way race.
LD3 Kingman-Bullhead-Lake Havasu (R+13)
Rep. Trish Groe and her multiple DUIs booted by Doris Goodale. Rep. Nancy McLain renominated.
LD4 Surprise-Peoria-Buckeye-Wickenburg(R+13)
Sen. Jack Harper crushes "Team Napolitano" candidate John Zerby. Rep. Tom Boone and Rep. Judy Burges renominated unopposed.
LD5 Payson-Globe-Snowflake-Safford (R+14)
Everything in this district depends on pending write-in counts, but it looks as though Rep. Jack Brown will be running solo again "against" Rep. Bill Konopnicki and his "running-mate" Barbara Brewer, whom he ran ahead of by 16 points in the GOP primary. Sylvia Tenney Allen will take the Senate seat unopposed.
LD6 North Central Phoenix (R+10)
Carl Seel destroyed "Team Napolitano" candidate Tony Bouie (35.3% to 21.3%). Rep. Sam Crump renominated easily. Sen. Pamela Gordon renominated unopposed.
LD7 Northeast Phoenix-Cave Creek (R+10)
Sen. Jim Waring, Rep. Ray Barnes, and Rep. Nancy Barto all ran unopposed.
LD8 Scottsdale-Fountain Hills (R+9)
Sen. Carolyn Allen, Rep. John Kavanagh, and Rep. Michele Reagan all ran unopposed.
LD9 Peoria-Sun City-Glendale (R+9)
Sen. Robert Burns, Rep. Rick Murphy, and Debbie Lesko all ran unopposed.
LD10 Phoenix (R+4)
Sen. Linda Gray and Martin Monroe ran unopposed in their respective Senate primaries. Speaker Weiers and former Rep. Doug Quelland ran unopposed in the Republican House primary. Lamont Lovejoy edged out Leonard Clark to run with Jackie Thrasher, who sailed easily.
LD11 Phoenix-Paradise Valley (R+4)
Rep. Adam Driggs and Jon Altmann nominated unopposed. No word yet on Democratic write-ins Jon Hulburd and Eric Meyer (remember, this is DeSimone's district). Sen. Barbara Leff and Democrat Ann Wallack ran unopposed.
LD12 Glendale-Goodyear-El Mirage-Litchfield Park (R+8)
Rep. John Nelson and Angela Cotera nominated unopposed for the Senate. Sen. Robert Blendu ousted in the House primary by Steve Montenegro. Rep. Jerry Weiers sailed. Eve Nunez and David Scanlon nominated unopposed on the Democratic side.
LD13 Avondale-Tolleson-Phoenix (D+8)
Sen. Richard Miranda, Rep. Steve Gallardo, and Rep. Martha Garcia renominated unopposed.
LD14 Phoenix (D+11)
Rep. Chad Campbell and Rep. Robert Meza crushed John Valdez. Sen. Debbie McCune-Davis ran unopposed.
LD15 Phoenix (D+12)
Sen. Ken Cheuvront, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, and Rep. David Lujan renominated unopposed.
LD16 South Phoenix (D+18)
Rep. Ben Miranda and Rep. Cloves Campbell, Jr. held off challenges from Betty Doss Ware and Jimmie Munoz, Jr. Sen. Leah Landrum renominated unopposed.
LD17 Tempe-Scottsdale (D+7)
Sen. Meg Burton-Cahill, Rep. Ed Ableser, and Rep. David Schatz Schapira ran unopposed.
LD18 Northwest Mesa (R+12)
Rep. Russell Pearce beat "Team Napolitano" candidate Kevin Gibbons by over 37 points. Cecil Ash and Steve Court won the nominations for the two open House seats, with Court barely edging out Ron Middlebrook.
LD19 Northeast Mesa (R+14)
Sen. Chuck Gray, Rep. Kirk Adams, and Rep. Rich Crandall all ran unopposed.
LD20 Ahwatukee-Chandler(R+3)
Rep. John McComish ousted by Jeff Dial and Frank Schmuck. Sen. John Huppenthal and Ted Maish nominated unopposed. No word yet on Michael Williams' write-in bid for the 2nd House slot.
LD21 Chandler-Southwest Mesa-Queen Creek (R+9)
Sen. Jay Tibshraeny, Rep. Warde Nichols, Rep. Jim Yarbrough and Phil Hettmansperger all nominated unopposed.
LD22 Gilbert-Southeast Mesa (R+15)
Sen. Thayer Verschoor barely hung on against Rep. Eddie Farnsworth and likely owes his victory to the 19% pulled in by Joe Bedgood. Rep. Andy Biggs was easily renominated, while Laurin Hendrix won the second House slot.
LD23 Casa Grande-Florence-Coolidge-Maricopa-Eloy (R+4)
Rep. Barbara McGuire renominated along with former Rep. Ernest Bustamante. John Fillmore and Frank Pratt nominated uncontested by the GOP. Sen. Rebecca Rios and Ron Paul activist Andre Campos also nominated uncontested.
LD24 Yuma (R+7)
Sen. Amanda Aguirre's only opponent will be a Green. Rep. Lynne Pancrazi, Rep. Theresa Ulmer, and Russ Jones all nominated unopposed.
LD25 Gila Bend-Buckeye-Marana (R+1)
Rep. Manny Alvarez (for Senate), Pat Fleming and Ric Boyer won the Democratic nominations uncontested. Mary Ann Black, Timathy Davies, and David Stevens won the Republican nominations uncontested.
LD26 Oro Valley-Catalina Foothills-Marana (R+4)
Al Melvin edged out Rep. Pete Hershberger in the Senate primary, giving some hope to Cheryl Cage. RINO Vic Williams, and SA prodigy Trent Humphries won a very close race against Marilyn Zerull. Rep. Nancy Young Wright and Don Jorgenson nominated unopposed.
LD27 West Tucson (D+15)
Rep. Olivia Cajero Bedford and Rep. Phil Lopes crushed John Kromko. Sen. Jorge Garcia renominated unopposed.
LD28 Central Tucson (D+13)
Sen. Paula Aboud, Rep. David Bradley, and Rep. Steve Farley all ran unopposed.
LD29 South Tucson (D+10)
Rep. Tom Prezelski ousted by Matt Heinz and Daniel Patterson. Rep. Linda Lopez nominated unopposed for the Senate.
LD30 Green Valley-Sierra Vista-Tanque Verde (R+7)
David Gowan and Frank Antenori won a very close 4-way House primary. Andrea Dalessandro nominated unopposed on the Democratic side. Rep. Jonathan Paton and Georgette Valle nominated unopposed for the Senate.
LD1 Prescott-Sedona (R+8)
Moderate Sen. Tom O'Halleran booted by conservative activist Steve Pierce. Rep. Lucy Mason and Rep. Andy Tobin renominated without contest.
This was a moderate v. conservative race, yes (Pierce was the Chair of the Yavapai GOP). But it also came down to Pierce spending over $180k to O'Halleran's $52k.
LD2 Flagstaff (D+21)
Rep. Tom Chabin renominated, but he comes in a distant second (53.1% to 32.2%) to Chris Deschene in the three-way race.
LD3 Kingman-Bullhead-Lake Havasu (R+13)
Rep. Trish Groe and her multiple DUIs booted by Doris Goodale. Rep. Nancy McLain renominated.
LD4 Surprise-Peoria-Buckeye-Wickenburg(R+13)
Sen. Jack Harper crushes "Team Napolitano" candidate John Zerby. Rep. Tom Boone and Rep. Judy Burges renominated unopposed.
LD5 Payson-Globe-Snowflake-Safford (R+14)
Everything in this district depends on pending write-in counts, but it looks as though Rep. Jack Brown will be running solo again "against" Rep. Bill Konopnicki and his "running-mate" Barbara Brewer, whom he ran ahead of by 16 points in the GOP primary. Sylvia Tenney Allen will take the Senate seat unopposed.
LD6 North Central Phoenix (R+10)
Carl Seel destroyed "Team Napolitano" candidate Tony Bouie (35.3% to 21.3%). Rep. Sam Crump renominated easily. Sen. Pamela Gordon renominated unopposed.
LD7 Northeast Phoenix-Cave Creek (R+10)
Sen. Jim Waring, Rep. Ray Barnes, and Rep. Nancy Barto all ran unopposed.
LD8 Scottsdale-Fountain Hills (R+9)
Sen. Carolyn Allen, Rep. John Kavanagh, and Rep. Michele Reagan all ran unopposed.
LD9 Peoria-Sun City-Glendale (R+9)
Sen. Robert Burns, Rep. Rick Murphy, and Debbie Lesko all ran unopposed.
LD10 Phoenix (R+4)
Sen. Linda Gray and Martin Monroe ran unopposed in their respective Senate primaries. Speaker Weiers and former Rep. Doug Quelland ran unopposed in the Republican House primary. Lamont Lovejoy edged out Leonard Clark to run with Jackie Thrasher, who sailed easily.
LD11 Phoenix-Paradise Valley (R+4)
Rep. Adam Driggs and Jon Altmann nominated unopposed. No word yet on Democratic write-ins Jon Hulburd and Eric Meyer (remember, this is DeSimone's district). Sen. Barbara Leff and Democrat Ann Wallack ran unopposed.
LD12 Glendale-Goodyear-El Mirage-Litchfield Park (R+8)
Rep. John Nelson and Angela Cotera nominated unopposed for the Senate. Sen. Robert Blendu ousted in the House primary by Steve Montenegro. Rep. Jerry Weiers sailed. Eve Nunez and David Scanlon nominated unopposed on the Democratic side.
LD13 Avondale-Tolleson-Phoenix (D+8)
Sen. Richard Miranda, Rep. Steve Gallardo, and Rep. Martha Garcia renominated unopposed.
LD14 Phoenix (D+11)
Rep. Chad Campbell and Rep. Robert Meza crushed John Valdez. Sen. Debbie McCune-Davis ran unopposed.
LD15 Phoenix (D+12)
Sen. Ken Cheuvront, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, and Rep. David Lujan renominated unopposed.
LD16 South Phoenix (D+18)
Rep. Ben Miranda and Rep. Cloves Campbell, Jr. held off challenges from Betty Doss Ware and Jimmie Munoz, Jr. Sen. Leah Landrum renominated unopposed.
LD17 Tempe-Scottsdale (D+7)
Sen. Meg Burton-Cahill, Rep. Ed Ableser, and Rep. David Schatz Schapira ran unopposed.
LD18 Northwest Mesa (R+12)
Rep. Russell Pearce beat "Team Napolitano" candidate Kevin Gibbons by over 37 points. Cecil Ash and Steve Court won the nominations for the two open House seats, with Court barely edging out Ron Middlebrook.
LD19 Northeast Mesa (R+14)
Sen. Chuck Gray, Rep. Kirk Adams, and Rep. Rich Crandall all ran unopposed.
LD20 Ahwatukee-Chandler(R+3)
Rep. John McComish ousted by Jeff Dial and Frank Schmuck. Sen. John Huppenthal and Ted Maish nominated unopposed. No word yet on Michael Williams' write-in bid for the 2nd House slot.
LD21 Chandler-Southwest Mesa-Queen Creek (R+9)
Sen. Jay Tibshraeny, Rep. Warde Nichols, Rep. Jim Yarbrough and Phil Hettmansperger all nominated unopposed.
LD22 Gilbert-Southeast Mesa (R+15)
Sen. Thayer Verschoor barely hung on against Rep. Eddie Farnsworth and likely owes his victory to the 19% pulled in by Joe Bedgood. Rep. Andy Biggs was easily renominated, while Laurin Hendrix won the second House slot.
LD23 Casa Grande-Florence-Coolidge-Maricopa-Eloy (R+4)
Rep. Barbara McGuire renominated along with former Rep. Ernest Bustamante. John Fillmore and Frank Pratt nominated uncontested by the GOP. Sen. Rebecca Rios and Ron Paul activist Andre Campos also nominated uncontested.
LD24 Yuma (R+7)
Sen. Amanda Aguirre's only opponent will be a Green. Rep. Lynne Pancrazi, Rep. Theresa Ulmer, and Russ Jones all nominated unopposed.
LD25 Gila Bend-Buckeye-Marana (R+1)
Rep. Manny Alvarez (for Senate), Pat Fleming and Ric Boyer won the Democratic nominations uncontested. Mary Ann Black, Timathy Davies, and David Stevens won the Republican nominations uncontested.
LD26 Oro Valley-Catalina Foothills-Marana (R+4)
Al Melvin edged out Rep. Pete Hershberger in the Senate primary, giving some hope to Cheryl Cage. RINO Vic Williams, and SA prodigy Trent Humphries won a very close race against Marilyn Zerull. Rep. Nancy Young Wright and Don Jorgenson nominated unopposed.
LD27 West Tucson (D+15)
Rep. Olivia Cajero Bedford and Rep. Phil Lopes crushed John Kromko. Sen. Jorge Garcia renominated unopposed.
LD28 Central Tucson (D+13)
Sen. Paula Aboud, Rep. David Bradley, and Rep. Steve Farley all ran unopposed.
LD29 South Tucson (D+10)
Rep. Tom Prezelski ousted by Matt Heinz and Daniel Patterson. Rep. Linda Lopez nominated unopposed for the Senate.
LD30 Green Valley-Sierra Vista-Tanque Verde (R+7)
David Gowan and Frank Antenori won a very close 4-way House primary. Andrea Dalessandro nominated unopposed on the Democratic side. Rep. Jonathan Paton and Georgette Valle nominated unopposed for the Senate.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Miss Information
BIG NEWS: Barack Obama has named Kathleen Sebelius to be his running mate.
More on this later.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Review of the Senate Race Polls
Some races have changed significantly, so I've added some updates.
This is one of those days when I take some time to find out what's going on in the races around the country. The House race rating averages are up-to-date, and now I turn my attention to the Senate races.
Alaska
Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) has steadily held on to a small lead over Sen. Ted Stevens (R) for some time now. The most recent poll from Rasmussen suggests that his lead might be starting to expand. Since the indictment, Begich has opened up a huge lead.
Alabama
State Sen. Vivian Figures (D) is going nowhere. She'll be hard-pressed to get to 40%. Jeff Sessions (R) is safe.
Arkansas
You know Sen. Mark Pryor (D) is safe when I have to look up the race to find out who his opponent is. Turns out he doesn't have one. At least not a Republican one. Instead, the Green Party nominee and a independent gun rights activist will compete for 2nd place.
Colorado
Some polls have shown a very tight race here, but Mark Udall's (D) lead over Bob Schaffer (R) is probably in the 5-8 point range. This is not a done deal, but Udall will have to mess up pretty badly to blow this seat.
Delaware
I had to look up Joe Biden's (D) opponent, too. It turns out that she's a mildly attractive political consultant named Christine O'Donnell (R). I'd say the race is over, but it never really started.
Georgia
On paper, former longtime State Rep. Jim Martin (R) is the perfect candidate to take Saxby Chambliss (R). Indeed, Rasmussen's recent poll showing a 51%-40% lead for Chambliss shows more reason to be optimistic that I would have anticipated. On the other hand, Georgia is just about the only state that seems to have gotten redder during President Bush's 2nd term. Look for the NRSC to have to spend some money here, but something dramatic would have to happen to Martin to pull this one off. Two polls in a row put Martin within 6 points of Chambliss. This race suddenly turned into the sleeper of the cycle.
Iowa
In another laugher, I just learned that Tom Harkin's (D) opponent is a businessman named Chris Reed (R).
Idaho
There hasn't been any reliable polling on this race as far as I know. My assessment of this race is largely the same as what I wrote about Georgia. We've got the perfect candidate for the state, but the state is still conservative as hell.
Illinois
It turns out that Dick Durbin's (D) opponent is a med school professor named Steve Sauerberg (R). Huh. Who knew?
Kansas
Pat Roberts (R) gets the award for best defense of a seat by an incumbent. We recruited the best possible candidate this side of Kathleen Sebelius and the blogging class got all amped up about the possibility of a real race here. Did Roberts wait until September or so to see if Jim Slattery (D) caught any traction? No. Instead, he and the NRSC went straight for the jugular and ripped Slattery's head off. Roberts is now polling in the 60%+ range whereas Slattery's negatives are even with his positives. This race is over.
Kentucky
The award for worst defense of a seat by an incumbent? That just might go to Mitch McConnell (R). Maybe it's because of his weird ads comparing himself to Alben Barkley and bragging about earmarks, but for whatever reason, his lead is down to about 4-7 points against two-time gubernatorial loser Bruce Lunsford (D). And Lunsford has got the personal wealth to chip into that small lead. McConnell has bounced back and has a double-digit lead. This one will be real tough.
Louisiana
Landrieu's lead is small, about 4-7 points. But I sense that Louisiana voters' distaste for John Kennedy (recently R) is greater than their distaste for the Democratic Party, even if not by much. A new Rasmussen poll shows a huge shift towards Landrieu. I'm not sure I buy it, but I never bought into Kennedy in the first place, either.
Massachusetts
I actually knew the name of John Kerry's woeful opponent, Jeff Beatty and didn't have to look it up.
Maine
All year we've been waiting for this race to start to break and it finally looks like it might have. Tom Allen (D) now consistently polls within 10 points of Susan Collins (R). Not exactly awe-inspiring stuff for a guy who has represented half the state for 12 years, but pretty good against one of the most popular home state politicians in the nation. The analogy to last cycle's Rhode Island race should be discouraging, not encouraging. Here's why: John Kerry beat George Bush by over 20 points in Rhode Island, and by only 9 points in Maine. Sheldon Whitehouse beat Lincoln Chafee by 7 points, a margin smaller than the gap in presidential voting between these two New England states. Allen can win, but I'm not ready to get on his bandwagon just yet. Collins hasn't been under 50% for a while now. I'm afraid this race will be as tough as Kentucky.
Michigan
Carl Levin (D) faces some guy called Jack Hoogendyk (R).
Minnesota
Have Al Franken's (D) self-inflicted wounds (making a joke about rape in public years ago) hurt his standing? New polls by SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac seem to suggest they have. Rasmussen's polls show no movement. Rasmussen has always had this race at about a toss-up, whereas other firms show Norm Coleman (R) with leads around 10 points. Who's right? I'm of course a huge Rasmussen fan, and in this case I'd like to go with them. But I do think Coleman still has an edge here, just not a large one. Coleman's still ahead, but it's close.
Mississippi-A
In one of the few Republican laughers, Thad Cochran (R) gets to destroy former LaRouche activist Erik Fleming (D).
Mississippi-B
How can this not be the sexy upset pick of the cycle? Former governor Ronnie Musgrove is the perfect candidate for this race and Obama's presence on the ticket is sure to explode previous black turnout levels. Add to that that every recent poll in the world shows a tie, and we've got ourselves a genuine race in Dixie. Wicker has opened up a substantial lead here. I'm worried I made the wrong pick here.
Montana
Remember the debacle of a primary that led to the MT GOP nominating the Constitution Party's 2002 Senate nominee? Well, it was hilarious. What could be more hilarious than that? The party's hand-picked nominee, a former State Senate Majority Leader, is still running, as a write-in.
North Carolina
I've been on the Kay Hagan (D) bandwagon for some time. Still, she's really gonna have to ramp up her fund-raising if she wants to compete with the kind of spending Liddy Dole (R) exhibited immediately after Hagan's primary win, spending that has her lead back in the double digits. The DSCC has committed $5 million here, if I remember correctly, so they a) still think this race is winnable and b) are willing to spend freely to help Hagan close the money gap. This race just gets closer. It's practically tied.
Nebraska
Scott Kleeb (D) has turned out to be a total flop and it looks like Mike Johanns' (R) service in President Bush's cabinet isn't the scarlet letter we'd hoped. This will be a walk-over, even as Obama competes for a couple of electoral votes here.
New Hampshire
Not much has changed here, which is good news for Jeanne Shaheen (D). Her lead over Jon Sununu (R) looks to still be in the double digits.
New Jersey
Given what we have to judge by in other states, former Congressman Dick Zimmer (R) is a pretty decent recruit. But that says more about the NRSC's difficulties this cycle than it does about Zimmer himself. Expect Frank Lautenberg to win by one of his customarily small, but comfortable margins.
New Mexico
If we've been waiting for Maine to break, I suspect Republicans have been waiting for Steve Pearce (R) to start making up some ground here. That's just not happening. Tom Udall (D) is polling in the 60s and Pearce might be lucky to get within 20 points by election day. Rasmussen shows a huge shift towards Pearce, but still an 8 point lead for Udall.
Oklahoma
I've got to admit, I've been really disappointed in Andrew Rice (D). He's still got the best biography of any candidate this side of Jackie Speier (CA-12), but he's been pretty poor as a candidate. He's got less than $800k on hand and that's just not gonna cut it.
Oregon
Rasmussen sees a Jeff Merkley (D) surge here and a tied race. No one else has released a poll since May, so let's hold our breath and wait for another poll to confirm the Merkley really has caught Gordon Smith (R). That tied poll was an outlier. Smith still leads with Merkley in striking range.
Rhode Island
Jack Reed (D) is working on the biggest blow-out of the cycle, with Rasmussen's only poll in this race showing a gigantic 72%-20% spread over his opponent, casino worker Bob Tingle (R).
South Carolina
This is the one state where it was the Democrat that I had to look up. He's a pilot named Bob Conley (D). He'll get 35-40%.
South Dakota
Another laugher. Tim Johnson (D) might have a shot at beating Jack Reed's margin over his opponent, with Johnson beating up on Joel Dykstra (R).
Texas
Rick Noriega (D) has virtually no money and his poll numbers are headed the wrong way. This race might be slipping away.
Tennessee
If a conservative Republican has to be reelected by a landslide, I'm glad that it's gonna be Lamar Alexander (R). I like the guy.
Virginia
Nothing new here. The real question is whether Mark Warner (D) or Tom Udall (D) will set the mark for biggest margin of victory in an open seat race.
West Virginia
Forgot Jay Rockefeller (D) was up for reelection? Me too.
Wyoming-A
Mike Enzi is safe.
Wyoming-B
John Barrasso is safe, too.
Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia are pretty close to sure things. North Carolina is very close. Our prospects look a little worse, but still decent, in Georgia, Minnesota, and Oregon. Also winnable, but pretty unlikely are Kentucky, Maine, and Mississippi.
This is one of those days when I take some time to find out what's going on in the races around the country. The House race rating averages are up-to-date, and now I turn my attention to the Senate races.
Alaska
Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) has steadily held on to a small lead over Sen. Ted Stevens (R) for some time now. The most recent poll from Rasmussen suggests that his lead might be starting to expand. Since the indictment, Begich has opened up a huge lead.
Alabama
State Sen. Vivian Figures (D) is going nowhere. She'll be hard-pressed to get to 40%. Jeff Sessions (R) is safe.
Arkansas
You know Sen. Mark Pryor (D) is safe when I have to look up the race to find out who his opponent is. Turns out he doesn't have one. At least not a Republican one. Instead, the Green Party nominee and a independent gun rights activist will compete for 2nd place.
Colorado
Some polls have shown a very tight race here, but Mark Udall's (D) lead over Bob Schaffer (R) is probably in the 5-8 point range. This is not a done deal, but Udall will have to mess up pretty badly to blow this seat.
Delaware
I had to look up Joe Biden's (D) opponent, too. It turns out that she's a mildly attractive political consultant named Christine O'Donnell (R). I'd say the race is over, but it never really started.
Georgia
On paper, former longtime State Rep. Jim Martin (R) is the perfect candidate to take Saxby Chambliss (R). Indeed, Rasmussen's recent poll showing a 51%-40% lead for Chambliss shows more reason to be optimistic that I would have anticipated. On the other hand, Georgia is just about the only state that seems to have gotten redder during President Bush's 2nd term. Look for the NRSC to have to spend some money here, but something dramatic would have to happen to Martin to pull this one off. Two polls in a row put Martin within 6 points of Chambliss. This race suddenly turned into the sleeper of the cycle.
Iowa
In another laugher, I just learned that Tom Harkin's (D) opponent is a businessman named Chris Reed (R).
Idaho
There hasn't been any reliable polling on this race as far as I know. My assessment of this race is largely the same as what I wrote about Georgia. We've got the perfect candidate for the state, but the state is still conservative as hell.
Illinois
It turns out that Dick Durbin's (D) opponent is a med school professor named Steve Sauerberg (R). Huh. Who knew?
Kansas
Pat Roberts (R) gets the award for best defense of a seat by an incumbent. We recruited the best possible candidate this side of Kathleen Sebelius and the blogging class got all amped up about the possibility of a real race here. Did Roberts wait until September or so to see if Jim Slattery (D) caught any traction? No. Instead, he and the NRSC went straight for the jugular and ripped Slattery's head off. Roberts is now polling in the 60%+ range whereas Slattery's negatives are even with his positives. This race is over.
Kentucky
The award for worst defense of a seat by an incumbent? That just might go to Mitch McConnell (R). Maybe it's because of his weird ads comparing himself to Alben Barkley and bragging about earmarks, but for whatever reason, his lead is down to about 4-7 points against two-time gubernatorial loser Bruce Lunsford (D). And Lunsford has got the personal wealth to chip into that small lead. McConnell has bounced back and has a double-digit lead. This one will be real tough.
Louisiana
Landrieu's lead is small, about 4-7 points. But I sense that Louisiana voters' distaste for John Kennedy (recently R) is greater than their distaste for the Democratic Party, even if not by much. A new Rasmussen poll shows a huge shift towards Landrieu. I'm not sure I buy it, but I never bought into Kennedy in the first place, either.
Massachusetts
I actually knew the name of John Kerry's woeful opponent, Jeff Beatty and didn't have to look it up.
Maine
All year we've been waiting for this race to start to break and it finally looks like it might have. Tom Allen (D) now consistently polls within 10 points of Susan Collins (R). Not exactly awe-inspiring stuff for a guy who has represented half the state for 12 years, but pretty good against one of the most popular home state politicians in the nation. The analogy to last cycle's Rhode Island race should be discouraging, not encouraging. Here's why: John Kerry beat George Bush by over 20 points in Rhode Island, and by only 9 points in Maine. Sheldon Whitehouse beat Lincoln Chafee by 7 points, a margin smaller than the gap in presidential voting between these two New England states. Allen can win, but I'm not ready to get on his bandwagon just yet. Collins hasn't been under 50% for a while now. I'm afraid this race will be as tough as Kentucky.
Michigan
Carl Levin (D) faces some guy called Jack Hoogendyk (R).
Minnesota
Have Al Franken's (D) self-inflicted wounds (making a joke about rape in public years ago) hurt his standing? New polls by SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac seem to suggest they have. Rasmussen's polls show no movement. Rasmussen has always had this race at about a toss-up, whereas other firms show Norm Coleman (R) with leads around 10 points. Who's right? I'm of course a huge Rasmussen fan, and in this case I'd like to go with them. But I do think Coleman still has an edge here, just not a large one. Coleman's still ahead, but it's close.
Mississippi-A
In one of the few Republican laughers, Thad Cochran (R) gets to destroy former LaRouche activist Erik Fleming (D).
Mississippi-B
How can this not be the sexy upset pick of the cycle? Former governor Ronnie Musgrove is the perfect candidate for this race and Obama's presence on the ticket is sure to explode previous black turnout levels. Add to that that every recent poll in the world shows a tie, and we've got ourselves a genuine race in Dixie. Wicker has opened up a substantial lead here. I'm worried I made the wrong pick here.
Montana
Remember the debacle of a primary that led to the MT GOP nominating the Constitution Party's 2002 Senate nominee? Well, it was hilarious. What could be more hilarious than that? The party's hand-picked nominee, a former State Senate Majority Leader, is still running, as a write-in.
North Carolina
I've been on the Kay Hagan (D) bandwagon for some time. Still, she's really gonna have to ramp up her fund-raising if she wants to compete with the kind of spending Liddy Dole (R) exhibited immediately after Hagan's primary win, spending that has her lead back in the double digits. The DSCC has committed $5 million here, if I remember correctly, so they a) still think this race is winnable and b) are willing to spend freely to help Hagan close the money gap. This race just gets closer. It's practically tied.
Nebraska
Scott Kleeb (D) has turned out to be a total flop and it looks like Mike Johanns' (R) service in President Bush's cabinet isn't the scarlet letter we'd hoped. This will be a walk-over, even as Obama competes for a couple of electoral votes here.
New Hampshire
Not much has changed here, which is good news for Jeanne Shaheen (D). Her lead over Jon Sununu (R) looks to still be in the double digits.
New Jersey
Given what we have to judge by in other states, former Congressman Dick Zimmer (R) is a pretty decent recruit. But that says more about the NRSC's difficulties this cycle than it does about Zimmer himself. Expect Frank Lautenberg to win by one of his customarily small, but comfortable margins.
New Mexico
If we've been waiting for Maine to break, I suspect Republicans have been waiting for Steve Pearce (R) to start making up some ground here. That's just not happening. Tom Udall (D) is polling in the 60s and Pearce might be lucky to get within 20 points by election day. Rasmussen shows a huge shift towards Pearce, but still an 8 point lead for Udall.
Oklahoma
I've got to admit, I've been really disappointed in Andrew Rice (D). He's still got the best biography of any candidate this side of Jackie Speier (CA-12), but he's been pretty poor as a candidate. He's got less than $800k on hand and that's just not gonna cut it.
Oregon
Rasmussen sees a Jeff Merkley (D) surge here and a tied race. No one else has released a poll since May, so let's hold our breath and wait for another poll to confirm the Merkley really has caught Gordon Smith (R). That tied poll was an outlier. Smith still leads with Merkley in striking range.
Rhode Island
Jack Reed (D) is working on the biggest blow-out of the cycle, with Rasmussen's only poll in this race showing a gigantic 72%-20% spread over his opponent, casino worker Bob Tingle (R).
South Carolina
This is the one state where it was the Democrat that I had to look up. He's a pilot named Bob Conley (D). He'll get 35-40%.
South Dakota
Another laugher. Tim Johnson (D) might have a shot at beating Jack Reed's margin over his opponent, with Johnson beating up on Joel Dykstra (R).
Texas
Rick Noriega (D) has virtually no money and his poll numbers are headed the wrong way. This race might be slipping away.
Tennessee
If a conservative Republican has to be reelected by a landslide, I'm glad that it's gonna be Lamar Alexander (R). I like the guy.
Virginia
Nothing new here. The real question is whether Mark Warner (D) or Tom Udall (D) will set the mark for biggest margin of victory in an open seat race.
West Virginia
Forgot Jay Rockefeller (D) was up for reelection? Me too.
Wyoming-A
Mike Enzi is safe.
Wyoming-B
John Barrasso is safe, too.
Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia are pretty close to sure things. North Carolina is very close. Our prospects look a little worse, but still decent, in Georgia, Minnesota, and Oregon. Also winnable, but pretty unlikely are Kentucky, Maine, and Mississippi.
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