The National Context

Now the race moves to New Hampshire, which probably won't end things. As we get closer to Feb. 5th, the national picture will start to matter a lot.

Here is the most recent Rasmussen tracker:

Romney 18%
McCain 17%
Huckabee 16%
Giuliani 13%
Thompson 13%
Other/Undecided 23%

Clinton 41%
Obama 24%
Edwards 17%
Other/Undecided 18%

Gimme Your Picks By the End of Tomorrow

I won't look at them until I've decided myself, but I want to post them tomorrow. I'll post our point standings ASAP.

Yesterday's Zogby Tracker

Trends go back to the first tracker a couple of days ago.

Clinton 28% (-2)
Obama 28% (+2)
Edwards 26% (--)
Richardson 7% (+2)
Biden 4% (-1)

Romney 28% (-1)
Huckabee 26% (-1)
McCain 12% (-1)
Thompson 12% (+4)
Paul 9% (+2)
Giuliani 7% (--)

Who Gets to Debate Before New Hampshire?

There will be three debates, 1 Democratic and 2 Republican, in the 5 days between Iowa and New Hampshire. Given the brevity of that time period, these debates could be crucial, especially for those campaigns that need an extra shot of mo' to overcome a disappointment in Iowa. However, all three debates will use certain inclusion criteria to determine their participants.

The ABC/WMUR/Facebook (yes, Facebook is a sponsor) debates on Jan. 5th require that candidates meet at least one of the following criteria:

"-- Place in the top four in the Iowa caucuses, which will be held on Thursday.

-- Poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four reputable random sample New Hampshire telephone surveys sponsored by an established news organization and conducted and released by 9 a.m. on Friday, Jan. 4.

-- Poll 5 percent or higher in one of the last four reputable random sample national telephone surveys sponsored by an established news organization and conducted and released on or before 9 a.m. on Jan. 4." (Per the Union Leader)

We can assume, then that Clinton, Obama, and Edwards will almost certainly be in the Democratic debate. Richardson is at or above 5% in the two most recent New Hampshire polls, so he'll probably be included, too. Neither Biden, Dodd, nor Kucinich are likely to poll that well before Jan. 4th, so one of them needs a 4th place finish in Iowa to join the debate. Obviously, Biden is the only one of those three who appears to have a chance at that. So, it looks like we'll see Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Richardson, and maybe, Biden (assuming they're all in the race at that point). Solid performances by Biden have been so prevalent in the previous debates, that it's hard to imagine what a debate would be like without him.

Exhibit A:

Among the Republicans, we can probably count on seeing Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Paul, Romney, and Thompson. Hunter and Keyes are gonna be locked out.

Fox News, true to its character, has no published no inclusion criteria other than being named Rudolph William Louis Giuliani, Michael Dale Huckabee, John Sidney McCain III, Willard Mitt Romney or Fred Dalton Thompson. Obviously, that list excludes Duncan Lee Hunter, Alan Keyes, and most notably, Ronald Ernest Paul, even though Paul consistently out-polls Thompson in New Hampshire. As the Union Leader story, above, relates, the New Hampshire Republican Party Chair is pi-issed.

That's a Really Good Question

Given the incredible closeness of the general polling picture, it seems especially pertinent for the NY Times' Adam Nagourney to ask: what if no one wins? Marc Ambinder responds with his own thoughts on the issue.

A 2nd Post-Christmas New Hampshire Poll

Suffolk University/WHDH (trends go back 3 weeks):

Clinton 36% (+3)
Obama 22% (-4)
Edwards 14% (-1)
Richardson 7% (+2)
Biden 4% (+4)

McCain 31% (+12)
Romney 25% (-6)
Giuliani 14% (-3)
Huckabee 9% (-1)
Paul 6% (+1)
Thompson 2% (-2)

Still More Iowa Polls

Strategic Vision has another poll out (trend-lines go back 3 days):

Obama 32% (+2)
Edwards 29% (+1)
Clinton 27% (-2)
Biden 5% (--)
Richardson 2% (--)

Romney 30% (+3)
Huckabee 28% (-1)
McCain 16% (+2)
Thompson 13% (-2)
Paul 4% (--)
Giuliani 4% (--)

CNN (trends date back 12 days):

Clinton 33% (+3)
Obama 31% (+3)
Edwards 22% (-4)
Richardson 5% (-2)
Biden 5% (+2)

Romney 31% (+6)
Huckabee 28% (-5)
Thompson 13% (+4)
McCain 10% (+1)
Paul 8% (+2)
Giuliani 8% (-3)