On the Senate side, the good news is that Meg Burton-Cahill in LD17 and Rebecca Rios in LD23 are getting a pass. For a second I was going to include Amanda Aguirre in LD24, because the CCEC shows no one filed against her, but then I realized that everyone freaking out about losing Yuma wouldn't make much since without a Republican to lose to. Now I've figured out that traitor Robert Cannell is running, but I'm still curious why he's not listed on the CCEC page. It's also good news that Manny Alvarez doesn't have to contend with Jennifer Burns in LD25, instead getting Arzberger's 2006 opponent, Mary Ann Black (Arzberger won 57.6%-42.4%). That gives us an edge in holding the seat. Of course, the drastically bad news comes from LD24, where Cannell's ghost candidacy is a huge problem, and LD26, where I guess the plan is to tell Indies to vote for Hershberger in the primary. Any route to 16 seats includes LD26 and almost certainly includes LD24, so these are not encouraging developments.
Even though our capitulation in LD26 essentially precludes any chance at the Senate majority, we can still focus on building for 2010 and beyond. Winning a majority requires us to take all of our base districts (2, 13-17, 27-29), add all of the swing districts (10-11, 20, 23, 25-26), and then getting at least one more seat that should normally go Republican, of which 24 and 30 are the best options. So one priority is going after every swing district, every time. Of course, if we're handing them LD26, we can only go after 5 of the 6 swing districts, so I guess that's the goal (God, that pisses me off). You all know how much I love Ted Maish in LD20. I would be less than shocked if he pulled off the upset. In LD10 and LD11 we're running re-run candidates from 2006. Anybody know anything about how Martin Monroe and Ann Wallack do as candidates?
Beyond that, we're in the territory where we'll need at least one win to eventually get to 16 (especially if we fork over our one foothold in that territory, LD24). LD12 features a Progressive Majority candidate, astrophysicist Angela Cotera, but she's got to contend with John Nelson, who's been elected by that district so many times they might not know how to turn him down even if they'd wanted to. I'm all about Georgette Valle, the 83-year-old former long-time Washington state Rep. running in LD30, and that race might be a fun one to watch, even if it doesn't turn out to be as competitive as we might hope. The only other notable race is LD6, where we have a...hold on a minute, that can't be right...yep, we have a primary.
I rank LD24 as a toss-up. LD20, too (I shit you not, I'm believer). LD25 is Likely Democratic. LD10, 11, 12, and 30 are Likely Republican. All others are safe for the incumbent party (except where they decline to field a candidate, goddammit!).
UPDATE: Cheryl Cage has entered the LD26 Senate race. If Al Melvin wins the GOP primary, the race will be a toss-up. If Hershberger wins, it's a Lean Republican. Since I'd bet on Melvin, I'll call it a toss-up for now.