Friday, December 28, 2007

First Iowa Polls Post X-Mas

Brought to us by Strategic Vision (R):

Trends in () refer to the SV poll of 12/16-12/18

Huckabee 29% (-2)
Romney 27% (+2)
Thompson 15% (-1)
McCain 14% (+6)
Giuliani 4% (-2)
Paul 4% (-1)

Obama 30% (--)
Clinton 29% (+2)
Edwards 28% (+1)
Biden 5% (--)
Richardson 2% (-1)

3 things to note:

1) The general feeling that Obama is slipping a bit is not reflected here. Sure, Clinton and Edwards may have a tiny bit more mo' than Obama does, but he's not going anywhere. It's still a dramatically close 3-way tie.

2) The Hucka-boom is over and 30% seems to be its ceiling. Romney closed the gap by 4% in one week. These two have no more air between them than do HRC-JRE-BHO.

3) The past couple of weeks saw several polls in which either Thompson or McCain was a strong third, but that never showed them this close. ARG said that McCain was in third with 17% (12/23) or even in second with 20% (12/19), while showing Thompson at 3% and 5% in those same periods. Last week's Strategic Vision poll pegged Thompson at 16% and McCain at 8%. It's been clear for a few days now that either McCain or Thompson (or both) is in a solid third place position. For the first time we have a poll that puts both of them in a second-tier ahead of Giuliani. A third place finish for either of these most Senior of Senior citizens could potentially be big.

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