Saturday, October 27, 2007

Open Legislative Seats

Let me know if I miss anything.

I've included seats that aren't really open seats since their current holders will be replace under "resign to run" laws before Nov. 2008. I've included those seats, since the incumbents will likely be weaker than other incumbents who have previously faced the voters. These seats are marked with an asterisk

LD25 (Arzberger)
LD30* (Bee)

LD2* Chabin
LD5* (Konopnicki) - Probable
LD9* (Stump) - Running for Corp. Comm.
LD12 (Nelson)
LD18* (Anderson)? - Assuming he's running in CD5.
LD18* (Pearce)
LD20* (Robson) - Running for Corp. Comm.
LD22 (Farnsworth) - Might be open early if he is running for AG.
LD25 (Alvarez) - Running for Senate
LD25 (Burns) - Running for Senate
LD26 (Hershberger)
LD29 (Lopez)
LD30* (McClure) - Running for Corp. Comm.
LD30 (Paton) - Running for Senate

Judging solely by the makeup of these districts, it looks like the important races are in LDs 12, 20, 25, 26, and 30. The other seats look none too likely to switch parties, open seat or no.


Espo said...

Pesquiera isn't going to give up that senate seat, mostly because it seems Pete will lose to Al Melvin in that primary.

As for Kirkpatrick, her seat has been replaced and the major Democrats have agreed not to primary Chabin.

30 is a really competitive district but no one seems to want to fight there.

Alton Brooks Parker said...

Thanks. The post is corrected now.

Espo said...

And i forgot to mention, it looks like both Alvarez and Burns are stepping down to run for Arzberger's seat.

Have I told you that you are a god?

Alton Brooks Parker said...

That sounds fun. I'll change that, too.

No, you haven't. Proceed.

Alton Brooks Parker said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Alton Brooks Parker said...

I just looked it up and Alvarez has beat Burns in every previous House election.

In 2006 it was 21,476 (27.1%) to 19,302 (24.4%).

In 2004 it was 25,599 (27.0%) to 25,121 (26.5%).

In 2002 it was 16,738 (28.3%) to 14,362 (24.8%).

It's interesting to note that the Prez year was much closer than the midterm years.

I also went back and compiled the total Dem and GOP vote in the House elections.

In 2006 it was Dems 39,994 (50.5%) to GOP 37,800 (47.8%).

In 2004 it was 48,160 (50.8%) to 46,558 (49.2%).

In 2002 it was 30,523 (52.8%) to 27,296 (47.2%).

That's a similar looking trend. The difference between the 2004 and 2006 elections appears to be the presence of Independent Bill Dore, who pulled down 1.7% in '06. Since the Dem percentages are pretty much the same and the GOP percentages show significant change, I'd say Dore pulled almost entirely from the GOP. Maybe that would be an obvious conclusion if I knew who the hell Bill Dore is.

Alton Brooks Parker said...

If I'd taken the ten seconds necessary to Google Bill Dore before posting my last comment, I would have learned that he is a Minuteman.

Espo said...

You are god.

Yeah, and it looks like we'll have two strong D candidates (We can talk who in a more private environment) to take the house seats getting vacated.

I think this is the election that we finally knock of burns.