The Seniors Problem

As wait for primary results tonight, here are some thoughts on the nature of the electorate. As we know, primaries tend to be senior-dominated contests. Here's the 2008 primary voters by age (from the VAN), along with approximate shares of the 18+ population (based on some rough math from census.gov):

	Population	2008 Prim.
18-24	9%	1%
25-34	20%	4%
35-54	37%	25%
55-64	15%	23%
65+	18%	47%

It seems like a problem to me that people under 55 (66% of the 18-and-over population), are such a small share of the primary electorate (30%). And its not just primaries, of course. Midterm generals are senior-dominated, albeit to a lesser extent:

	Population	2006 Gen.
18-24	9%	1%
25-34	20%	7%
35-54	37%	33%
55-64	15%	24%
65+	18%	35%

We already knew that seniors vote at higher rates than everyone else. That's no surprise for a number of reasons. Nor is it seniors' fault that everyone else votes at lower rates. What's striking, however is that we can improve the representativeness of the electorate simply by raising the profile of the races involved. The 2008 general electorate, for example was much closer to a representative sample:

	Population	2008 Gen.
18-24	9%	5%
25-34	20%	12%
35-54	37%	35%
55-64	15%	30%
65+	18%	18%

Yet another reason why we should have fewer elections.