Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Impact of New Registration Numbers on Upcoming Legislative Races

The numbers in every district are important for statewide races, and I will address those concerns in another post. For now, here is what the new numbers mean for the legislative races of the near future.

LD5 - Rep. Jack Brown is still very much in trouble. This district is now 39.8% Democratic, 39.3% Republican, and 20.5% Independent. Of course, many of those Democrats are ancestral and vote Republican.

LD9, LD10, LD11 - These swing districts have been bleeding Republicans over the last 4 years. Independents continue to dominate the new numbers, with more Independents than either Democrats or Republicans in each district since October '08. Total registration numbers are fairly stagnant since Jan. '05, growing only 3.8% in LD9 and 0.7% in LD11, and shrinking by 2.4% in LD10. The totals: LD9 - 42.4% R, 31.2% D, 25.9% I; LD10 - 36.4% R, 34.7% D, 28.0% I; LD11 - 44.3% R, 32.0% D, 23.0% I.

LD12 - This west side district has exploded, growing by 37.1% since Jan. '05 and adding 39,854 voters (15,458 Independents, 13,687 Democrats, 10,478 Republicans). Due to that growth, this district will be carved up before the 2012 election, and there's hope that there will be a genuine swing district in the west side. For now, we've got a real shot at a House seat here if we have a candidate that can raise the kind of money you need in a district with 147k+ voters. The numbers here: 36.1% R, 33.2% D, 30.1% I.

LD17 - We all know about this shift. Until this district's Independents start voting Republican, this is a safe seat.

LD18 - I'm not going to pretend that we can win here yet, but we are seeing the eventual browning of west Mesa start to take hold. Not only is this district bleeding Republicans, it is adding Democrats, even while the overall registration numbers have shrunk by 2.1% since Jan. '05. In other words, it's registration numbers are starting to shift in the direction of a South Phoenix base district. We might be able to win the seats in this area come 2012 depending on what the districts look like. For now: 42.3% R, 28.9% D, 28.0% I.

LD20 - We all know about this too. I just wanted to point out the size of the Democratic shift here. Democrats have gained 2.4% since Jan. '05, while Republicans have lost 4.9% (Independents have gained 2.5%). Right now: 39.7% R, 30.8% D, 28.8% I.

LD21 - Since Jan. '05, this district has gained 11,588 Independents, 7,926 Democrats and 7,047 Republicans, making it one of the fastest-growing in the state. That hasn't been quite enough to make it a genuine swing district, as our close losses in 2006 and 2008 attest. For now: 42.4% R, 27.7% D, 29.2% I.

The rest later.

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