Tuesday, February 26, 2008
This Is How It Should Be
This tickles my republican heart. Man, I love open dialogue between elected representatives.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
How Are We Doing in the General?
Wisconsin: Obama 52%, McCain 42% (SurveyUSA 2/18); Obama 43%, McCain 42% (Rasmussen 2/21)
Iowa: Obama 51%, McCain 41% (SurveyUSA 2/19); Obama 44%, McCain 41% (Rasmussen 2/18)
New Mexico: Obama 55%, McCain 40% (SurveyUSA 2/22); Obama 44%, McCain 44% (Rasmussen 2/21)
New Hampshire: Obama 49%, McCain 36% (Rasmussen 2/11)
Ohio: McCain 42%, Obama 41% (Rasmussen 2/17); Obama 47%, McCain 44% (SurveyUSA 2/22)
Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, McCain 39% (Rasmussen 2/14)
Nevada: Obama 50%, McCain 38% (Rasmussen 2/12)
Michigan: Obama 47%, McCain 39% (Rasmussen 2/17)
Minnesota: Obama 53%, McCain 48% (Rasmussen 2/16); Obama 55%, McCain 40% (SurveyUSA 2/22)
Oregon: Obama 49%, McCain 40% (Rasmussen 2/13), Obama 48%, McCain 47% (SurveyUSA 2/21)
Colorado: Obama 46%, McCain 39% (Rasmussen 2/11)
Florida: McCain 53%, Obama 37% (Rasmussen 2/16)
Washington: Obama 55%, McCain 38% (SurveyUSA 2/5)
Missouri: McCain 42%, Obama 40% (Rasmussen 2/12); Obama 49%, McCain 43% (SurveyUSA 2/22)
Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45% (SurveyUSA 2/19); McCain 49%, Obama 44% (Rasmussen 2/18)
California: Obama 61%, McCain 34% (SurveyUSA 2/22)
North Carolina: McCain 47%, Obama 42% (Public Policy Polling 2/18)
Kentucky: McCain 61%, Obama 32% (SurveyUSA 2/5)
Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 40% (SurveyUSA 2/5)
Massachusetts: Obama 48%, McCain 46% (SurveyUSA 2/22)
Kansas: McCain 50%, Obama 44% (SurveyUSA 2/21)
Alabama: McCain 59%, Obama 31% (Press-Register 2/17)
Update: Obama - 255 EVs, McCain - 210 EVs Swing states are: AR, ME, MA (?), MO, OH, VA.
Iowa: Obama 51%, McCain 41% (SurveyUSA 2/19); Obama 44%, McCain 41% (Rasmussen 2/18)
New Mexico: Obama 55%, McCain 40% (SurveyUSA 2/22); Obama 44%, McCain 44% (Rasmussen 2/21)
New Hampshire: Obama 49%, McCain 36% (Rasmussen 2/11)
Ohio: McCain 42%, Obama 41% (Rasmussen 2/17); Obama 47%, McCain 44% (SurveyUSA 2/22)
Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, McCain 39% (Rasmussen 2/14)
Nevada: Obama 50%, McCain 38% (Rasmussen 2/12)
Michigan: Obama 47%, McCain 39% (Rasmussen 2/17)
Minnesota: Obama 53%, McCain 48% (Rasmussen 2/16); Obama 55%, McCain 40% (SurveyUSA 2/22)
Oregon: Obama 49%, McCain 40% (Rasmussen 2/13), Obama 48%, McCain 47% (SurveyUSA 2/21)
Colorado: Obama 46%, McCain 39% (Rasmussen 2/11)
Florida: McCain 53%, Obama 37% (Rasmussen 2/16)
Washington: Obama 55%, McCain 38% (SurveyUSA 2/5)
Missouri: McCain 42%, Obama 40% (Rasmussen 2/12); Obama 49%, McCain 43% (SurveyUSA 2/22)
Virginia: Obama 51%, McCain 45% (SurveyUSA 2/19); McCain 49%, Obama 44% (Rasmussen 2/18)
California: Obama 61%, McCain 34% (SurveyUSA 2/22)
North Carolina: McCain 47%, Obama 42% (Public Policy Polling 2/18)
Kentucky: McCain 61%, Obama 32% (SurveyUSA 2/5)
Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 40% (SurveyUSA 2/5)
Massachusetts: Obama 48%, McCain 46% (SurveyUSA 2/22)
Kansas: McCain 50%, Obama 44% (SurveyUSA 2/21)
Alabama: McCain 59%, Obama 31% (Press-Register 2/17)
Update: Obama - 255 EVs, McCain - 210 EVs Swing states are: AR, ME, MA (?), MO, OH, VA.
Immoral
Wisconsin voters are having their collective intelligence insulted by this bs. Anybody want to argue that the Clinton campaign would qualify as Roussean citizens? No, no one does. Because they wouldn't.
Also, Andrea Mitchell just said "interregnum" while discussing Cuba on MSNBC. Awesome.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Wisconsin Picks
Let's see 'em. Oh, and the GOP polls are close enough that I want picks from both sides.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
How Are the Senate Races Going?
There are 15 interesting races, 14 of which are for Republican-held seats.
Clear Democratic Leads (3)
New Hampshire - Except for two outliers from disgraced (by their record in the primaries this cycle) polling firm ARG, all of the polls of this race show Jeanne Shaheen (D) holding a substantial lead over John Sununu (R). On 2/11/08, the Granite State Poll put her lead at 54%-37%, while Rasmussen has a 2/13/08 poll that shows her up 49%-41%.
New Mexico - Tom Udall (D) leads Heather Wilson (R) 58%-30%, and Steve Pearce (R) 53%-31% in NMSU's 2/11/08 poll. He consistently out-polls both GOP congresspeople by wide margins.
Virginia - Mark Warner (D) leads Jim Gilmore (R) 53%-38% in Rasmussen's poll of 1/3/08. Those figures are virtually unchanged from Rasmussen's 10/30/07 poll and reflect the general consensus that Warner has a massive lead.
Polling Toss-Ups (4)
Alaska - It feels a little presumptive to label this race a toss-up, especially since the presumptive challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, has yet to declare his candidacy. Still, Research 2000 showed Begich (D) leading Ted Stevens (R) 47%-41% on 12/3/07-12/6/07.
Colorado - Polling in this race has been consistently close. Bob Schaffer (R) had a statistically insignificant lead of 44%-43% over Mark Udall (D) in Rasmussen's 2/11/08 poll.
Louisiana - SurveyUSA released the only public poll for this race on 12/13/07. At the time, Mary Landrieu (D) led John Kennedy (R) 46%-42%.
Minnesota - Al Franken (D) and, to a lesser degree, his primary competitor Mike Ciresi (D), has closed the gap on Norm Coleman (R). Minnesota Public Radio has the most recent poll, which showed Franken leading 43%-40%, while Ciresi trailed 43%-38% (1/29/08).
Races That Still Need Some Work (8)
Idaho - Larry LaRocco (D) is the best candidate we could have hoped for in a state like Idaho (OK, there's Cecil Andrus, but he's 76), but he's not yet in striking range of Jim Risch (R), trailing him 48%-34% in Myers Research's poll of 11/13/07-11/19/07.
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R) will face one of two wealthy businessmen, Greg Fischer (D) and Bruce Lunsford (D). There is no polling (that I'm aware of) on either match-up, but I think we can assume that McConnell will start with an edge over his challengers.
Maine - Susan Collins (R) maintains a stubborn lead over Tom Allen (D). SurveyUSA's 11/5/07 poll is representative in pegging her lead at 55%-38%.
Mississippi - We have no reliable polling on this race, but I'm guessing that Roger Wicker (R) has a modest lead over Ronnie Musgrove (D) and a more comfortable margin over Ronnie Shows (D).
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole (R) is vulnerable, but holds a substantial early lead over his two potential opponents, Kay Hagan (D) and Jim Neal (D). Rasmussen's 12/26/07 poll put her lead at 55%-35% over Hagan.
Oklahoma - It might be that the only reason this race is on the list is because I love Andrew Rice's (D) biography. Still, Tom Coburn's 2004 race was kinda close, so maybe there's hope. Anyway, Jim Inhofe (R) led Rice 60%-28% in Tulsa World's 12/16/07-12/19/07 poll.
Oregon - Aw, crap, those Novick-ites are gonna come back, aren't they? Anyway, SurveyUSA's 11/5/07 poll showed Gordon Smith (R) leading Jeff Merkley (D) 48%-39%, and Steve Novick (D) 45%-39%. However, those polls did not include independent candidate John Frohnmayer, who I expect to take more Democratic votes than Smith votes.
Texas - Since Mikal Watts' withdrawal, Rick Noriega (D) has just about locked up the Democratic nomination. Now it's time to get to work, given that Research 2000's 9/24/07-9/26/07 poll showed him trailing John Cornyn (R) 51%-35% (Rasmussen's numbers from September '07 were similar).
We just need three races to move up into the toss-up category for a 60-seat majority to be a realistic possibility.
Clear Democratic Leads (3)
New Hampshire - Except for two outliers from disgraced (by their record in the primaries this cycle) polling firm ARG, all of the polls of this race show Jeanne Shaheen (D) holding a substantial lead over John Sununu (R). On 2/11/08, the Granite State Poll put her lead at 54%-37%, while Rasmussen has a 2/13/08 poll that shows her up 49%-41%.
New Mexico - Tom Udall (D) leads Heather Wilson (R) 58%-30%, and Steve Pearce (R) 53%-31% in NMSU's 2/11/08 poll. He consistently out-polls both GOP congresspeople by wide margins.
Virginia - Mark Warner (D) leads Jim Gilmore (R) 53%-38% in Rasmussen's poll of 1/3/08. Those figures are virtually unchanged from Rasmussen's 10/30/07 poll and reflect the general consensus that Warner has a massive lead.
Polling Toss-Ups (4)
Alaska - It feels a little presumptive to label this race a toss-up, especially since the presumptive challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, has yet to declare his candidacy. Still, Research 2000 showed Begich (D) leading Ted Stevens (R) 47%-41% on 12/3/07-12/6/07.
Colorado - Polling in this race has been consistently close. Bob Schaffer (R) had a statistically insignificant lead of 44%-43% over Mark Udall (D) in Rasmussen's 2/11/08 poll.
Louisiana - SurveyUSA released the only public poll for this race on 12/13/07. At the time, Mary Landrieu (D) led John Kennedy (R) 46%-42%.
Minnesota - Al Franken (D) and, to a lesser degree, his primary competitor Mike Ciresi (D), has closed the gap on Norm Coleman (R). Minnesota Public Radio has the most recent poll, which showed Franken leading 43%-40%, while Ciresi trailed 43%-38% (1/29/08).
Races That Still Need Some Work (8)
Idaho - Larry LaRocco (D) is the best candidate we could have hoped for in a state like Idaho (OK, there's Cecil Andrus, but he's 76), but he's not yet in striking range of Jim Risch (R), trailing him 48%-34% in Myers Research's poll of 11/13/07-11/19/07.
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R) will face one of two wealthy businessmen, Greg Fischer (D) and Bruce Lunsford (D). There is no polling (that I'm aware of) on either match-up, but I think we can assume that McConnell will start with an edge over his challengers.
Maine - Susan Collins (R) maintains a stubborn lead over Tom Allen (D). SurveyUSA's 11/5/07 poll is representative in pegging her lead at 55%-38%.
Mississippi - We have no reliable polling on this race, but I'm guessing that Roger Wicker (R) has a modest lead over Ronnie Musgrove (D) and a more comfortable margin over Ronnie Shows (D).
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole (R) is vulnerable, but holds a substantial early lead over his two potential opponents, Kay Hagan (D) and Jim Neal (D). Rasmussen's 12/26/07 poll put her lead at 55%-35% over Hagan.
Oklahoma - It might be that the only reason this race is on the list is because I love Andrew Rice's (D) biography. Still, Tom Coburn's 2004 race was kinda close, so maybe there's hope. Anyway, Jim Inhofe (R) led Rice 60%-28% in Tulsa World's 12/16/07-12/19/07 poll.
Oregon - Aw, crap, those Novick-ites are gonna come back, aren't they? Anyway, SurveyUSA's 11/5/07 poll showed Gordon Smith (R) leading Jeff Merkley (D) 48%-39%, and Steve Novick (D) 45%-39%. However, those polls did not include independent candidate John Frohnmayer, who I expect to take more Democratic votes than Smith votes.
Texas - Since Mikal Watts' withdrawal, Rick Noriega (D) has just about locked up the Democratic nomination. Now it's time to get to work, given that Research 2000's 9/24/07-9/26/07 poll showed him trailing John Cornyn (R) 51%-35% (Rasmussen's numbers from September '07 were similar).
We just need three races to move up into the toss-up category for a 60-seat majority to be a realistic possibility.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Veepstakes
Sure, it's still premature to talk about Obama's running mate, but this isn't sexual performance we're talking about. Premature is OK. Obama has some room to be creative here, so there are probably 20+ names that could be in contention. I'm looking to start with 16 , from which we can narrow down to our favorite.
So far, I've got 14 names that are legit contenders and sweet sixteen-worthy:
Governors: Tim Kaine, Janet Napolitano, Bill Richardson, Brian Schweitzer, Kathleen Sebelius, Ted Strickland
Senators: Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, Jack Reed, Jim Webb
Others: Wes Clark, Tom Daschle, John Edwards
Among the nominees for the last two spots in the Sweet 16 are:
Joe Biden
Michael Bloomberg
Bill Bradley
William Cohen
Chris Dodd
Jim Doyle
Dick Gephardt
Anthony Zinni
Any other nominations? Which two from the second list would you elevate to the Sweet 16? Any objections to my top 14?
So far, I've got 14 names that are legit contenders and sweet sixteen-worthy:
Governors: Tim Kaine, Janet Napolitano, Bill Richardson, Brian Schweitzer, Kathleen Sebelius, Ted Strickland
Senators: Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill, Bill Nelson, Jack Reed, Jim Webb
Others: Wes Clark, Tom Daschle, John Edwards
Among the nominees for the last two spots in the Sweet 16 are:
Joe Biden
Michael Bloomberg
Bill Bradley
William Cohen
Chris Dodd
Jim Doyle
Dick Gephardt
Anthony Zinni
Any other nominations? Which two from the second list would you elevate to the Sweet 16? Any objections to my top 14?
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