Monday, December 31, 2007
Des Moines Register Poll
This is the last DMR poll before the Caucus. Remember that this poll was the only poll to correctly predict the order of finish in 2004.
Here are the numbers (tremd-lines go back to late November):
Obama 32% (+4)
Clinton 25% (--)
Edwards 24% (+1)
Richardson 6% (-3)
Biden 4% (-2)
Dodd 2% (+1)
Kucinich 1% (--)
Gravel 0% (--)
Huckabee 32% (+3)
Romney 26% (+2)
McCain 13% (+6)
Thompson 9% (+4)
Paul 9% (+2)
Giuliani 5% (-8)
Hunter 1% (--)
Keyes 1% (+1)
The Register's story on the Democratic poll is here. The Republican story is here.
Here are the numbers (tremd-lines go back to late November):
Obama 32% (+4)
Clinton 25% (--)
Edwards 24% (+1)
Richardson 6% (-3)
Biden 4% (-2)
Dodd 2% (+1)
Kucinich 1% (--)
Gravel 0% (--)
Huckabee 32% (+3)
Romney 26% (+2)
McCain 13% (+6)
Thompson 9% (+4)
Paul 9% (+2)
Giuliani 5% (-8)
Hunter 1% (--)
Keyes 1% (+1)
The Register's story on the Democratic poll is here. The Republican story is here.
Day 2 of Zogby Tracking Polling
Its a daily tracker so the trend goes back to, well, yesterday.
Clinton 30% (-1)
Obama 26% (-1)
Edwards 26% (+2)
Richardson 5% (--)
Biden 5% (--)
Huckabee 29% (--)
Romney 27% (-1)
McCain 13% (+2)
Thompson 8% (--)
Giuliani 7% (-1)
Paul 7% (-1)
Clinton 30% (-1)
Obama 26% (-1)
Edwards 26% (+2)
Richardson 5% (--)
Biden 5% (--)
Huckabee 29% (--)
Romney 27% (-1)
McCain 13% (+2)
Thompson 8% (--)
Giuliani 7% (-1)
Paul 7% (-1)
More Iowa Polls
Mason-Dixon, in association with McClatchy and MSNBC, came out with a new poll Sunday. The results are below with trend-lines going back to 3 weeks ago.
Edwards 24% (+3)
Clinton 23% (-4)
Obama 22% (-3)
Richardson 12% (+3)
Biden 8% (+3)
Romney 27% (+7)
Huckabee 23% (-9)
Thompson 14% (+3)
McCain 13% (+6)
Giuliani 5% (--)
Paul 5% (+3)
American Research Group also dropped some knowledge on us Sunday. Here, the trend-lines date back only 5 days to their last pre-Christmas poll.
Clinton 31% (-3)
Edwards 24% (-1)
Obama 24% (+2)
Biden 5% (-3)
Richardson 5% (--)
Romney 32% (+11)
Huckabee 23% (--)
McCain 11% (-6)
Thompson 7% (+4)
Giuliani 6% (-8)
Paul 6% (-4)
The biggest polling news of the day was the announcement that *FINALLY* someone has started a daily tracking poll on the early states. The pollster will be Zogby, in association with Reuters and C-SPAN, and they'll publish daily results in both Iowa and New Hampshire until each race is over. They dropped the first results yesterday. Trend-lines date back a month.
Clinton 31% (+4)
Obama 27% (+3)
Edwards 24% (+3)
Richardson 5% (-3)
Biden 5% (--)
Huckabee 29% (+4)
Romney 28% (+3)
McCain 11% (+6)
Thompson 8% (--)
Giuliani 8% (-4)
Paul 8% (+3)
Analysis:
The variation in the Democratic polls has got to be a result of differing voter screens. If you're interested in the various voter screens, Pollster.com has a good article here. For example, I can guarantee that Mason-Dixon bases their likely caucus-goer universe more heavily on previous caucus-goers, among whom Edwards does especially well.
Romney has surged back at the same time that Huckabee settled back down to earth. I'm not sure if I buy that Romney is as far ahead as ARG tells us. Instead, I attribute much of that lead to the press bashing Huckabee received about a couple of minor foreign policy-related misstatements. That whole saga is hilarious. The media, over-correcting for its long-time adoration of Huckabee, decided to hit him over the head with a couple of misstatements, turning them from minor (and mostly understandable) mistakes into signs that Huckabee is completely incompetent. Now, they are berating themselves once again for their overreaction. I expect that they'll ease up on him in these last few days.
Edwards 24% (+3)
Clinton 23% (-4)
Obama 22% (-3)
Richardson 12% (+3)
Biden 8% (+3)
Romney 27% (+7)
Huckabee 23% (-9)
Thompson 14% (+3)
McCain 13% (+6)
Giuliani 5% (--)
Paul 5% (+3)
American Research Group also dropped some knowledge on us Sunday. Here, the trend-lines date back only 5 days to their last pre-Christmas poll.
Clinton 31% (-3)
Edwards 24% (-1)
Obama 24% (+2)
Biden 5% (-3)
Richardson 5% (--)
Romney 32% (+11)
Huckabee 23% (--)
McCain 11% (-6)
Thompson 7% (+4)
Giuliani 6% (-8)
Paul 6% (-4)
The biggest polling news of the day was the announcement that *FINALLY* someone has started a daily tracking poll on the early states. The pollster will be Zogby, in association with Reuters and C-SPAN, and they'll publish daily results in both Iowa and New Hampshire until each race is over. They dropped the first results yesterday. Trend-lines date back a month.
Clinton 31% (+4)
Obama 27% (+3)
Edwards 24% (+3)
Richardson 5% (-3)
Biden 5% (--)
Huckabee 29% (+4)
Romney 28% (+3)
McCain 11% (+6)
Thompson 8% (--)
Giuliani 8% (-4)
Paul 8% (+3)
Analysis:
The variation in the Democratic polls has got to be a result of differing voter screens. If you're interested in the various voter screens, Pollster.com has a good article here. For example, I can guarantee that Mason-Dixon bases their likely caucus-goer universe more heavily on previous caucus-goers, among whom Edwards does especially well.
Romney has surged back at the same time that Huckabee settled back down to earth. I'm not sure if I buy that Romney is as far ahead as ARG tells us. Instead, I attribute much of that lead to the press bashing Huckabee received about a couple of minor foreign policy-related misstatements. That whole saga is hilarious. The media, over-correcting for its long-time adoration of Huckabee, decided to hit him over the head with a couple of misstatements, turning them from minor (and mostly understandable) mistakes into signs that Huckabee is completely incompetent. Now, they are berating themselves once again for their overreaction. I expect that they'll ease up on him in these last few days.
ARG Poll Out of New Hampshire Shows Re-Shaped Race
The Democratic race is coming to resemble the race in Iowa. The trends are from ARG's last poll, ten days ago.
Clinton 31% (-7)
Obama 27% (+3)
Edwards 21% (+6)
Richardson 5% (--)
Biden 3% (-1)
These trends reflect a general consensus among the pre-Christmas New Hampshire polls that Clinton is slipping, Obama is gaining, and Edwards is surging.
Romney 30% (+4)
McCain 30% (+4)
Huckabee 11% (--)
Giuliani 9% (-7)
Paul 7% (+3)
Thompson 3% (-1)
This has become a virtual playoff game between Romney and McCain. The loser will be in a world of hurt (given the crazy dynamics of the GOP race, it's hard to say that the loser will be totally dead).
Clinton 31% (-7)
Obama 27% (+3)
Edwards 21% (+6)
Richardson 5% (--)
Biden 3% (-1)
These trends reflect a general consensus among the pre-Christmas New Hampshire polls that Clinton is slipping, Obama is gaining, and Edwards is surging.
Romney 30% (+4)
McCain 30% (+4)
Huckabee 11% (--)
Giuliani 9% (-7)
Paul 7% (+3)
Thompson 3% (-1)
This has become a virtual playoff game between Romney and McCain. The loser will be in a world of hurt (given the crazy dynamics of the GOP race, it's hard to say that the loser will be totally dead).
Our Iowa Picks
Our Iowa picks are listed below. On the Democratic side, point values are as follows: 18 points for the winner, 9 points for 2nd, 6 points for 3rd, and 4.5 points for 4th. The Republican race, with fewer viable candidates, will be worth 12 points for the winner, 6 points for 2nd, 4 points for 3rd, and 3 points for 4th.
Democrats
My Picks:
1) Obama
2) Edwards
3) Clinton
4) Biden
Geoff:
1) Edwards
2) Obama
3) Clinton
4) Biden
Joaquin:
1) Edwards
2) Clinton
3) Obama
4) Biden
JJ:
1) Edwards
2) Clinton
3) Obama
4) Richardson
Devin:
1) Clinton
2) Edwards
3) Obama
4) Richardson
Matt:
1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards
4) Richardson
Lemme parse the picks a bit. Its interesting that Edwards make 5 of our 6 top 2s (including leading with 3 first place picks). Obama is hit-or-miss, picked to win by 2 of us and to finish as low as third by another 3. Finally, our 4th place picks are evenly split between Biden and Richardson, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding that spot, uncertainty which will allow whichever of these two finishes there to claim a small victory.
Republicans
My Picks:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) McCain
4) Thompson
Geoff:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) Paul
4) McCain
Joaquin:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) McCain
4) Paul
JJ:
1) Romney
2) Huckabee
3) McCain
4) Thompson
Devin:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) Thompson
4) McCain
Matt:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) McCain
4) Paul
Immediately after finalizing my picks, I began to wish I'd picked Romney. I still think he out-mans Huckabee organizationally and I assumed that most of us would go with Huckabee. As it turns out, JJ was the only one to go with Mitt the Massachusetts Mormon. If Romney comes up big on Caucus night, JJ will feel as though he's just dug up some gold in his back yard. Apparently we're all believers in the McCain surge, as we all have him in our top 4s. Three of us are also betting on some unlikely caucus-goers showing up to leapfrog Paul ahead of Thompson and Giuliani and into the top 4.
Democrats
My Picks:
1) Obama
2) Edwards
3) Clinton
4) Biden
Geoff:
1) Edwards
2) Obama
3) Clinton
4) Biden
Joaquin:
1) Edwards
2) Clinton
3) Obama
4) Biden
JJ:
1) Edwards
2) Clinton
3) Obama
4) Richardson
Devin:
1) Clinton
2) Edwards
3) Obama
4) Richardson
Matt:
1) Obama
2) Clinton
3) Edwards
4) Richardson
Lemme parse the picks a bit. Its interesting that Edwards make 5 of our 6 top 2s (including leading with 3 first place picks). Obama is hit-or-miss, picked to win by 2 of us and to finish as low as third by another 3. Finally, our 4th place picks are evenly split between Biden and Richardson, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding that spot, uncertainty which will allow whichever of these two finishes there to claim a small victory.
Republicans
My Picks:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) McCain
4) Thompson
Geoff:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) Paul
4) McCain
Joaquin:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) McCain
4) Paul
JJ:
1) Romney
2) Huckabee
3) McCain
4) Thompson
Devin:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) Thompson
4) McCain
Matt:
1) Huckabee
2) Romney
3) McCain
4) Paul
Immediately after finalizing my picks, I began to wish I'd picked Romney. I still think he out-mans Huckabee organizationally and I assumed that most of us would go with Huckabee. As it turns out, JJ was the only one to go with Mitt the Massachusetts Mormon. If Romney comes up big on Caucus night, JJ will feel as though he's just dug up some gold in his back yard. Apparently we're all believers in the McCain surge, as we all have him in our top 4s. Three of us are also betting on some unlikely caucus-goers showing up to leapfrog Paul ahead of Thompson and Giuliani and into the top 4.
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